According to Guosheng Securities, based on past business trends, it is determined that Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (02313) orders are still steadily increasing year-on-year. The estimated shipment volume in the second half of 2024 is expected to grow by over 15% year-on-year (this judgment exceeds previous expectations). Considering the company's customer structure changes, it is estimated that the sales unit price in the second half of 2024 may still decline year-on-year, but the decrease is narrowed compared to the first half of 2024 (the first half of 2024 saw a high double-digit year-on-year decline). From the perspective of profit quality, the company's gross margin in the first half of 2024 increased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year to 29.0% (the gross margins for the first and second halves of 2023 were 22.4% and 25.8%, respectively). The bank determines that the company's gross margin in the second half of 2024 is expected to continue to improve year-on-year.

Looking ahead, based on the business situation of downstream brands, the bank determines that in the second half of 2024 and in 2025, the company's orders from Adidas, Uniqlo, and domestic brands are expected to achieve stable and rapid growth, while orders from Nike are mainly expected to remain stable. Overall, it is estimated that the company's revenue in 2025 is expected to grow steadily by over 10%.

The bank stated that the company is the largest vertically integrated apparel manufacturer globally. Currently, the trend of improvement in pre-orders is clear, with long-term capacity expansion, efficiency enhancement, and increased competitiveness. The bank expects the company's net income attributable to shareholders to be 5.8/6.55/7.39 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 27%/13%/13%, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12 times for 2025 and maintains a 'Buy' rating.