美银表示，由于目前的净利润估计是基于初步估计，该行认为最终收益可能会略高于这一估计，因为氧化铝价格自2024年第四季度以来强劲上涨了40%，并在2024年12月保持在5700元人民币/吨的高位。根据计算，预计其氧化铝部门将在2024财年第四季度贡献700元人民币/吨的利润增长，环比增长18亿元人民币，铝业务贡献200元人民币/吨的利润增长，或环比增长4亿元人民币。据估计，这意味着第四季度净利润将超过80亿元人民币。The Global Research Team of the Bank of America released a Research Report stating that they maintain a "Buy" rating for CHINAHONGQIAO, with a Target Price of 16.50 HKD.
According to the Zhizhong Finance APP, the Global Research Team of the Bank of America released a Research Report expressing an optimistic view on CHINAHONGQIAO (01378)'s Aluminum and Alumina Business, asserting that the company's dividend yield is substantial, thus maintaining a "Buy" rating for the stock, with a Target Price of 16.50 HKD.
The report pointed out that CHINAHONGQIAO announced a positive profit alert, expecting a year-on-year increase in Net income of about 95% for the fiscal year 2024. This means that the Net income for the fiscal year 2024 is expected to be 22.3 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter Net income reaching 7.3 billion yuan (a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24%), which is better than market expectations. Assuming a payout ratio of 55%, the implied dividend for the fiscal year 2024 is 1.3 yuan per share, or a dividend yield of 12% calculated at the current stock price (with the second half of fiscal year 2024 expected to have a dividend yield greater than 7%).
The Bank of America stated that since the current Net income estimate is based on preliminary estimates, the final earnings might slightly exceed this estimate, as Alumina prices have risen sharply by 40% since the fourth quarter of 2024 and are expected to remain high at 5700 yuan/ton in December 2024. According to calculations, the Alumina division is expected to contribute a profit growth of 700 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, resulting in a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8 billion yuan, while the Aluminum business contributes a profit growth of 200 yuan/ton, or a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 billion yuan. It is estimated that this means the fourth quarter Net income will exceed 8 billion yuan.
Additionally, the Bank believes that strong Alumina prices will continue into the first quarter of 2025. Based on recent expert calls with Shanghai Aladdin and Asia Metal companies, the Bank believes that although supply is gradually recovering, the issue of tight bauxite supply in the Industry will not be fully resolved in the near future, and the supply of Alumina could remain tight until the first quarter of 2025. Although China will have 12.3 million tons of new Alumina capacity coming online next year, it is estimated that only 6 million tons of bauxite resources are secured, which means that the remaining capacity may face obstacles upon startup. Therefore, bauxite could become a cost support for Alumina next year.
As for Aluminum, due to the high Alumina prices, the current Industry profit margin is at a loss of 1000 yuan/ton, but since CHINAHONGQIAO's self-sufficiency rate for Alumina is greater than 100%, its impact on earnings is limited, and the Bank believes CHINAHONGQIAO's Aluminum profit margins remain considerable.
