1）为满足增长的户结订单需求，2024 年以来公司加大招工力度、优化生产管理模式，积极提升产能利用率并扩充海外产能，2024H1 柬埔寨成衣新工厂员工人数已达到计划规模（1.8 万人）且效率持续爬坡、越南胡志明成衣工厂人数较年初增加0.22 万人②收购越南西宁工厂以提升面料供应能力。2）中长期公司继续推进独立一体化、国际化产业链建设，强化核心竞争力。2023 年公司国内/越南/柬埔寨基地贡献成衣产出占比分别约47%/27%/26%，同比分别-7pct/+3pct/+4pct，我们判断随着海外新基地的扩建、未来海外产能贡献占比将持续提升（（ 前预估计已出过 50%），匹配国际市场业务需求。①国内产能：主供中国+亚洲海外市场，强化数字化建设，以研发、效率、速度为核心竞争优势。价海外产能：规模持续扩张的同时上下游配套逐步完善，夯实成本优势，深度绑定海外核心户结中长期需求。We comprehensively estimate that the company's 2024H2 revenue is expected to increase by 10% to 20% mid-range, continuing its steady growth performance. 1) Looking at volume and price breakdown: ① Volume: Based on past business trends, we judge that recent company orders are still growing steadily year on year. It is estimated that 2024H2 shipments will increase 15% + year over year ((we determine the expected period before delivery) ② Price: Considering changes in the public company account structure, we estimate that the 2024H2 sales unit price may or still decline year on year, but the decline is narrower than H1 (2024H1 is a higher unit of year-on-year decline). 2) From the perspective of profit quality: 2024H1's gross margin was +6.6pct year on year to 29.0% ((2023H1 and 2023H2 gross margins, respectively, 22.4% and 25.8%). We judge that 2024H2 company's gross margin is expected to continue to increase year over year.
Orders: The share of core accounts continues to increase. We judge that Adidas, Uniqlo and other account settlement orders performed well in 2025. 1) By category: 2024H1 sports/leisure/underwear/other categories were 92.1/2.76/0.9/0.1 billion yuan, respectively, +8%/+20%/+47%/+12% year-on-year, accounting for 71%/21%/7%/1% respectively. Considering changes in the public sector structure, we judge that the share of the 2024H2 sports category is expected to increase month-on-month. 2) Account breakdown: In the past, the company closely cooperated with leading international brands such as Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and PUMA. 2024H1 sold 34.0/3.24/2.33/1.34 billion yuan respectively, +34%/-6%/+24%/+0% year over year, accounting for 26%/25%/18%/10%, respectively ② Other accounts achieved sales of 2.66 billion yuan, +14% compared to the previous year. Looking forward to the future: Based on the downstream brand business situation, we determine that in 2024H2 and 2025, the company's account orders to Adidas, Uniqlo, domestic brands, etc. are expected to achieve steady and rapid growth, and sales to Nike will be mainly stable. Taken together, it is estimated that the company's revenue is expected to grow steadily by 10% + in 2025.
Production capacity: We will actively promote recruitment in 2024, and continue to build new overseas production capacity in the 2025 period to continue to strengthen the advantages of the industrial chain.
1) In order to meet the growing demand for settlement orders, the company has increased recruitment efforts, optimized production management models, and actively expanded overseas production capacity since 2024. The number of employees at the new 2024H1 Cambodian garment factory has reached the planned scale (0.018 million) and efficiency continues to rise. The number of people in the Ho Chi Minh garment factory in Vietnam increased by 0.0022 million people compared to the beginning of the year ② The Xining factory in Vietnam was acquired to enhance fabric supply capacity. 2) Medium- and long-term companies continue to promote the construction of independent, integrated and international industrial chains to strengthen their core competitiveness. In 2023, the company's domestic/Vietnam/Cambodia base contributed about 47%/27%/26% of ready-to-wear output, respectively. We determine that with the expansion of new overseas bases, the share of overseas production capacity contributions will continue to increase in the future (the previous estimate has reached 50%) to match the business needs of the international market. ① Domestic production capacity: Mainly supplied to overseas markets in China and Asia, strengthening digital construction, with R&D, efficiency and speed as core competitive advantages. Overseas production capacity: While the scale continues to expand, upstream and downstream facilities are gradually being improved, consolidating cost advantages and deeply binding the medium- to long-term needs of overseas core accounts.
The 2024 revenue period grew steadily, and the restoration of profit quality led to rapid growth in the net profit period. 1) 2024:
Based on the 2024H2 situation, we judge that the company's revenue is expected to grow steadily by 10% + for the full year of 2024, the gross margin schedule will continue to recover year over year, and the main business profit (excluding the influence of exchange rates and other factors) is expected to grow rapidly year over year. 2) 2025: Taking into account public orders and production capacity expansion, we estimate that the company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow steadily by more than 10% in 2025.
Investment advice. The company is the world's largest vertically integrated garment manufacturer. There is a clear trend of improvement in pre-order orders, long-term capacity expansion, efficiency improvement, and competitiveness. We estimate that the company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 was 5.8/6.55/ 7.39 billion yuan, respectively, up 27%/13% year-on-year, respectively. The current price corresponds to the 2025 PE 12 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand fluctuation risk ② risk of undue production capacity expansion ② risk of large account order fluctuation risk foreign exchange fluctuation risk.
