#GoldTechnical analysis.#24K99 News On Wednesday (December 18), during Asian market hours, spot Gold remained basically stable, with the price currently around 2645 dollars per ounce. FXStreet's Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik wrote an analysis on the technical outlook for Gold.
Bednarik wrote that the Gold price hit a new low for the week on Tuesday and may soon re-test the 2600 dollars per ounce level. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The market generally anticipates that the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. The next focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's views on what 2025 might bring.
Spot Gold closed down 0.24% on Tuesday, reporting at 2645.90 dollars per ounce. The price during the day dropped to a low of 2632.91 dollars per ounce.
At 03:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary. At 03:30 Beijing time on Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy.
According to CME's 'Fed Watch' tool, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Investors will closely watch the meeting statement and the press conference held by Fed Chairman Powell afterward to further determine future policy directions. The Fed's updated economic forecasts and dot plot are also market focal points as they may reshape expectations for interest rate trajectories in 2025 and 2026.
OANDA MarketPulse market analyst Zain Vawda said, "As we approach the Federal Reserve meeting, the risks for Gold actually lean towards the downside."
Renowned journalist Nick Timiraos from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fed's megaphone," wrote that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans are constantly changing, with investors widely expecting a third consecutive rate cut this week. After this, officials are prepared to slow down or even stop the rate cuts.
Timiraos wrote that Powell is trying to find the right positioning amidst signs of a less volatile labor market and inflation that is slightly more robust than in September. Some officials have expressed doubts about continuing rate cuts, and those who previously strongly supported the first two cuts are no longer so certain.
Analysts pointed out that if Powell takes a cautious approach towards further policy easing, emphasizing a gradual manner, the dollar could strengthen significantly, while Gold prices may face a substantial decline.
Short-term technical outlook for gold
Bednarik wrote that from a technical perspective, the daily chart for Gold indicates that prices may continue to decline. Gold is encountering buyers around the currently flat 20-day (SMA) level.Simple Moving AverageThe 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to rise well below current Gold price levels, with the 100-day moving average around the $2602 per ounce area. Finally,technical indicatorsTurn bearish. The momentum Indicators remain at a neutral level, butRelative Strength Index(RSIhas fallen to 46, reflecting the increasing selling pressure.
(Spot Gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
Bednarik added that the short-term outlook for Gold is also bearish. In the 4-hour chart, Gold is trading below all its moving averages, with the 20-period SMA accelerating downward, slightly above the convergence of the 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA. Meanwhile, the Technical Indicators have slightly risen but remain in negative territory, insufficient to support a recovery for Gold.
Valeria Bednarik provides the latest key support and resistance levels for gold price:
Resistance: $2633.00/oz; $2617.90/oz; $2603.15/oz
Support: $2657.30/oz; $2672.70/oz
As of 11:34 AM in Peking, spot Gold is quoted at $2645.58/oz.
