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安联投资:美国经济有望实现软着陆 美股仍具吸引力

Allianz Investment: The USA economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, and US stocks still have attractiveness.

Zhitong Finance ·  10:20

Allianz Investment published the 2025 market outlook report, indicating that with a decisive result in the US elections, the outlook for risk assets seems positive, and the US and global economies are expected to achieve.possibility of a soft landing,However, there may be hidden volatility in the future.

According to Zhito Finance APP, Allianz Investment published the 2025 market outlook report, indicating that with a decisive result in the US elections, the outlook for risk assets seems positive, and the US and global economies are expected to achieve a soft landing, but there may be hidden volatility in the future. Due to market expectations, the interest rate cut cycle may still be disrupted by the resurgence of inflation, so risks still exist. It is currently an appropriate time to reconsider asset allocation, with options to increase risk exposure or increase Shareholding in private bonds and Infrastructure, as well as other illiquid assets.

Allianz Investment's basic scenario forecast for the US economy is that a soft landing is in sight, meaning inflation will slow and recession will be avoided. This outcome is Bullish for a range of risk assets, especially US Stocks, which, despite high valuations, still hold attractiveness.

The global economy is showing divergence – that is, the US economic growth rate is leading Europe and Japan, which may continue into a second Trump presidential term, and investors may need to deal with the reshaped geopolitical environment due to increased tariffs and potential trade wars.

An interest rate cut is expected to be Bullish for the Bond market, but there is a danger of inflation resurfacing, which means investors should be prepared for possible market misalignments due to delayed interest rate cuts.

Investors may consider adjusting their risk asset allocation by reallocating assets currently held in Cash or low-risk MMF to medium-risk opportunities in fixed income or private equity markets, thereby balancing high-risk investments.

As new regulations in Europe increase Inflow from retail investors, it accelerates the growth of private Bonds and Infrastructure, making non-liquid Assets an increasingly important tool for diversification.

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