Jinwu Financial News | Most Innovative Drug Concepts have risen, with Saint John's Medical (02257) up 11.56%, By-Health (02315) up 9.68%, Gilead Sciences (01672) up 7.98%, Green Bamboo Bio (02480) up 4.73%, ZAI LAB (09688) up 4.41%, Kangnuo Ya (02162) up 1.34%, SINO BIOPHARM (01177) up 0.95%, and INNOVENT BIO (01801) up 0.69%.
Galaxy Securities stated, 1) Pharmaceutical innovation is the core driving force for pharmaceutical growth. The growth rates of innovative drugs from Me-too to First-in-class, FIC, and FF pipelines all exceed those of Me-too pipelines; medical instruments are continuously developing towards high-end and integrated solutions. 2) Overseas exports are expected to accelerate under the backdrop of US dollar interest rate cuts, with high pricing levels bringing high market ROI, focusing on innovative drugs, injectables, and high-end instruments. 3) Policy pressure promotes cost reduction and efficiency improvement, making efficiency the lifeline of enterprise development. Process optimization and equipment updates in production, domestic substitution of raw materials and consumables, digital marketing, smart logistics, and electronic prescription circulation in distribution, third-party testing/imaging, and chain specialty hospitals in medical services, the efficiency improvement of the entire Industry Chain is gradually being emphasized. 4) Pharmaceutical consumption is expected to recover under policy stimulus. The macro impact on pharmaceuticals directly relates to consumption recovery and investment financing improvement, with consumer healthcare poised to benefit first as economic expectations improve.
Guo Zheng International reported, looking ahead to 2025, as the Federal Reserve begins its interest rate cut cycle and the high premium rate of AH highlights the cost-performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks, liquidity in Hong Kong stocks tends to improve. For the pharmaceutical Sector, driven by the continuous advancement of the "medical insurance + commercial insurance" model and policy support, the industry scale is expected to further expand. The bank is bullish on three main investment themes of innovation, going overseas, and aligning with policy development: 1. Innovation: Interest rate-sensitive innovative drugs and instruments are expected to continue benefiting from improved liquidity. The bank believes the main driving factors for the development of innovative drugs in 2025 are: (1) Going overseas. Due to the significant pricing differences between China and the US, companies can continuously open up market ceilings through licensing out. (2) National and local governments are successively introducing policies to encourage the development of innovative drugs. (3) Continuous negotiations on medical insurance and centralized procurement are pushing the development of innovative drugs. (4) The "medical insurance + commercial insurance" model opens up space for health insurance, providing a larger development space for innovative drugs. In addition, the bank is also optimistic about the growth of the GLP-1 weight loss drug Industry Chain and other emerging tracks. 2. Going overseas: Innovative drug and medical instrument companies are expected to continuously open market ceilings through going overseas. 3. Aligning with policy development: Benefiting from policy stimulus and consumption recovery, the consumer healthcare and medical beauty sectors are expected to resume growth. The bank suggests focusing on stable internal and external expansion, companies with differentiated professional characteristics, low valuations in consumer healthcare symbols, and those with product power, brand strength, and marketing advantages in beauty products.