該行指，當前板塊估值交易於0.2至0.5倍2025財年P/EV和0.4至0.9倍2025財年P/BV，股息率為4%至7%。第四季保險板塊股價震蕩回調，更多反映對政策端預期的博弈。維持板塊「增持」評級，推薦買入資負匹配更優、增長動能持續向好的龍頭險企中國太保(02601.HK)、中國人壽(02628.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)和友邦保險(01299.HK)。Zhaoyin International released a report indicating that this year, China's Insurance Industry is entering a new stage of high-quality transformation under policy support and a low interest rate environment. Due to considerations to prevent the risk of interest spread losses, the regulatory body has lowered the upper limit for life insurance pricing rates by 100 basis points within two years, initiating the downward cycle of life insurance pricing rates.
The report states that the Property Insurance Industry is expected to further expand its incremental space in car insurance premiums alongside the rapid increase in the number and penetration rate of Electric Vehicles; the launch of innovative non-auto insurance products and the continuous strengthening of risk reduction management by regulations lay the foundation for diversified Operation and high-quality development in the industry.
In terms of investment, in recent years, affected by the downtrend in long-term interest rates and the maturity of existing non-standard assets, the net investment return rate of insurance companies has quickly declined, with market concerns over interest spread loss risks being the main reason suppressing the recovery of insurance company valuations. The report believes that improving the matching of Asset and Liability durations and establishing a major asset allocation system is essential for insurance companies to navigate economic cycles and achieve sound Operation.
The report states that the current Sector is trading at 0.2 to 0.5 times the 2025 fiscal year P/EV and 0.4 to 0.9 times the 2025 fiscal year P/BV, with a dividend yield of 4% to 7%. In the fourth quarter, the insurance Sector saw fluctuating price adjustments, reflecting more the speculation on policy expectations. The rating for the Sector is maintained at "Shareholding", recommending to Buy leading insurance companies with better Asset matching and sustained growth momentum: China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK), China Life Insurance (02628.HK), Ping An Insurance (02318.HK), and AIA (01299.HK).
