Morgan Stanley released a report expecting that Macau's gambling revenue performance will strengthen in the first quarter of next year, with a 2025 forecast of 238 billion Macanese patacas, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 5%. However, due to increased reinvestment costs for most gambling companies, the EBITDA forecast for next year has been downgraded by 7% to 8 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 6%. The bank has also adjusted the Target Price for gambling stocks, as detailed in another table. Sands China (01928.HK) remains the preferred choice.
Morgan Stanley downgraded the rating of Melco Resorts (MLCO.US) from 'Shareholding' to 'Market Perform'. Compared to GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), the bank is more bullish on Sands China due to its more apparent market share momentum, resuming dividends, and the parent company's LVS stock buyback.
Among mid-cap stocks, the bank prefers MGM CHINA (02282.HK) and WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) over Melco Resorts, as they offer higher dividend yields and lower valuations.