美联储议息会议前夕，市场因关税担忧提高2025年美国通胀预期，明年核心PCE通胀预期从2.3%升至2.5%，预计美联储降息次数降至三次，每次25基点，年底联邦基金利率预计在3.5%-3.75%。还有机构预测明年仅降息两次，低于美联储9月点阵图暗示的降息四次。巴克莱称，美联储有机会在2025年年底之前停止量化紧缩（QT）。Source: Wall Street News
The Dow Jones has seen its first nine consecutive declines since 1978; NVIDIA has seen four consecutive declines, while Tesla has risen over 3% against the trend, hitting new highs for three consecutive days. Chinese concept stocks rebounded nearly 2%, with PDD Holdings rising nearly 3% and Bilibili increasing over 4%. Salaries in the United Kingdom have grown faster than expected, with two-year UK bond yields rising 10 basis points in one day. The USD has rebounded; the Canadian dollar has hit a more than four-year low since the pandemic; Bitcoin surged over $0.108 million during trading, hitting a new historical high for two consecutive days. Crude Oil Product has fallen for two consecutive days, with US oil dropping more than 2% at one point; Gold has hit a new low for the week.
Strong car purchases and online shopping have created a thriving market. In November, US retail sales exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, the highest since September. Analysts indicate that the robust retail sales combined with the warming inflation suggest that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year. After the data release, the USD short-term fell, and the rise in US Treasury yields narrowed.
On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market concerns over tariffs raised US inflation expectations for 2025. The forecast for next year’s core PCE inflation increased from 2.3% to 2.5%, and it is expected that the Fed will reduce rates three times next year, each by 25 basis points, with the year-end federal funds rate anticipated to be between 3.5% and 3.75%. Some institutions predict only two rate cuts next year, lower than the four hinted at by the Fed's September dot plot. Barclays stated that the Fed has a chance to stop quantitative tightening (QT) before the end of 2025.
In the Eurozone, UK wage growth exceeded expectations, with average wages rising by 5.2% year-on-year in October over the previous three months, above forecasts and prior values. The market has reduced expectations for the Bank of England's rate cuts next year, with traders anticipating a 64 basis point cut in 2025, the lowest since November 20, and less than a 40% chance for three rate cuts next year. It is expected that decision-makers will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75% this Thursday. However, economists from asset management giant Vanguard believe the market has underestimated the rate cut magnitude, predicting that the Bank of England will cut rates by 100 basis points in 2025. After the data release, the British Pound rose while UK bonds generally weakened.
German businesses lack confidence in future economic conditions, with the December business expectations index dropping from 87 to 84.4, compared to previous analyst forecasts of a slight increase. Amid ongoing economic malaise, the German government is attempting to reduce debt, cutting federal debt sales by 13% in 2025, leading to a broader rally in German 10-year bonds. UK bonds continue to be pressured by inflation, while German bonds are rising amid anticipated ECB rate cuts. The yield premium of UK bonds over German bonds temporarily widened to 228 basis points, nearing the highest level since 1990.
Additionally, Canada's inflation rate in November increased by 1.9% year-on-year, below expectations and previous values, marking the second month in three for being below the central bank's 2% target, which supports the central bank's dovish stance. Following a sudden announcement from Canada's finance minister, revealing internal government strife, the Canadian Dollar fell to a more than four-year low on Tuesday. Recently, due to threats of tariffs from Trump and political turmoil, the prospects for rate cuts have been bolstered by the favorable inflation rate, with the Canadian Dollar dropping over 7% this year.
Market risk aversion has increased, with US stock indexes all falling. The Dow started a consecutive decline after first closing above 45,000 points earlier this month, plummeting over 381 points on Tuesday, marking the first nine-day consecutive drop since the 1970s. All sectors broadly declined, with industrial, energy, and financial sectors leading the losses, while consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors performed relatively well. Most chip stocks and AI concept stocks fell, with NVIDIA dropping nearly 4% before narrowing its decline to 1.22%. Tesla and Apple reached new highs, while Google turned downward after hitting a new high, and Broadcom closed down 3.91%.
All three major US stock indexes fell. The S&P 500 Index closed down 23.47 points, a decrease of 0.39%, at 6050.61 points. The Dow Jones, closely related to the economic cycle, fell by 267.58 points, a drop of 0.61%, ending at 43449.90 points. The Nasdaq, which is heavily composed of tech stocks, fell by 64.83 points, a decrease of 0.32%, closing at 20109.06 points. The Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.43%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology component stocks, fell by 0.76%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, fell by 1.18%. The volatility index VIX rose by 8.03%, reaching 15.87.
US sector ETFs experienced widespread declines. The regional banks ETF fell by 2.35%, the WP CSI Banks ETF dropped by 2.07%, the semiconductor ETF fell by 1.3%, and the energy, financial, technology sector ETFs, and global tech stock index ETFs also saw declines of up to 0.74%, while the consumer discretionary ETF and biotechnology index ETF increased by over 0.3%.
In terms of investment research strategy, global annual trading volume surpassed 3 trillion USD, and merger bankers believe the coming year under Trump's presidency will be better. Bank of America stated that the "Seven Sisters" of US stocks are still expected to perform outstandingly by 2025. Fund managers have reduced cash holdings to record lows, leading to a substantial inflow of funds into the US stock market, triggering a signal that Bank of America believes may indicate a global stock sell-off. In December, the proportion of cash in total assets managed dropped to 3.9%, and historically, after this phenomenon, the MSCI Global Index tends to decline. Since 2011, following sell signals from Bank of America, the MSCI Global Index has averaged a decline of 2.4% over the following month. Surveys indicate that fund managers are most optimistic about a growth rebound in China in 2025, while the global trade war is viewed as the most pessimistic catalyst.
The "Seven Sisters" of Technology had mixed performance. (1) Tesla rose over 4.5% to set a new all-time high and closed up 3.64%, with Mizuho raising the Target Price of Tesla from $230 to $515, upgrading its rating from neutral to outperform. (2) Google's Class A shares rose over 2.4% to reach an all-time high before closing down 0.63%, with reports stating that Alphabet's subsidiary Waymo will enter the Japanese autonomous taxi market. (3) Apple closed up 0.97%, creating another all-time high during the trading session. (4) "Metaverse" Meta dropped by 0.77%. (5) Microsoft rose by 0.64%. (6) Amazon fell by over 2.1% but narrowed its decline to 0.76%. (7) NVIDIA, after falling nearly 3.9%, narrowed its loss to 1.22%, with NVIDIA set to release its next-generation Blackwell architecture RTX 50 series graphics cards on January 7, Beijing time. The RTX 5090 graphics card will feature a record 32GB of GDDR7 memory. NVIDIA also launched an AI supercomputer priced at only $249, with generative AI performance improving by up to 1.7 times.
Chip stocks fell broadly. The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed down 1.64%, at 5169.79 points. The SOXX sector ETF fell 1.41%. The double long ETF for NVIDIA fell 2.53%. Marvell Technology dropped 10.04%, Broadcom fell 3.91% distancing from its historical high, Microchip Technology declined by 1.34%, and Bank of America Securities downgraded Microchip Technology's rating from "neutral" to "underperform", lowering its Target Price from $80 to $65. Synopsys fell 1.96%, Wolfspeed dropped 1.88%, Intel fell 1.87%, Arm Holdings dropped 1.52%, AMD fell 1.32%, Taiwan Semiconductor dropped 0.77%, KLA Corp fell 0.19%, Qualcomm rose 0.02%, Micron Technology rose 0.31%, ASML Holding rose 1.77%, and ON Semiconductor rose 1.96%.
Most AI concept stocks declined. BigBear.ai rose 13.71%, Serve Robotics rose 11.35%, BullFrog AI rose 9.79%, Super Micro Computer rose 1.08%, while SoundHound AI, owned by NVIDIA, fell 1.52% from its all-time high, C3.ai dropped 0.19%, CrowdStrike fell 3.03%, Palantir declined 1.8%, and Oracle fell 0.89%.
China Concept Stocks rose overall. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.97%, at 6964.23 points. Among ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed up 4.68%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 1.15%, the Deutsche Bank Harvest CSI 300 ETF (ASHR) closed up 1.14%, the China Concept Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 1.33%, and the FTSE China 3x Short ETF (YANG) closed down 4.89%. The FTSE A50 Futures rose 0.42% in the continuous night session, closing at 13468.000 points.
Among the popular China Concept Stocks, Planet Image International rose 24.62%, Dingdong rose 7.07%, Tiger Securities rose 5.59%, Baidu rose 2.08%, the company applied for a trademark for short dramas and will further focus on the short drama business. Atour, Bilibili, Daqo New Energy, Weibo, and Tencent Music rose by up to 4.6%, Qifu Technology, Xpeng, H World Group, ZTO Express, Full Truck Alliance, and ZAI LAB rose by about 3.9%, Ctrip, Li Auto, NIO, and Noah Holdings rose by over 2.8%, YUM CHINA, EHang, JD.com, Vipshop, Autohome, and Alibaba rose by over 1.7%, KE Holdings, Kanzhun, NetEase, DouYu, and Canadian Solar also rose by over 0.8%, while GDS Holdings, JinkoSolar, and New Oriental fell by more than 0.8%.
Bitcoin surged to $0.108 million, reaching a historical high, then plummeted over $2000, leading to a downturn in cryptocurrency concept stocks. The 'meme stock' in cryptocurrency, Ideanomics, rose by 57.14%, Riot Platforms fell by 0.43%, Bitdeer Technologies fell by 8.3%, and Canaan fell by 3.88%. Cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase fell by 1.16%, as it delisted wBTC due to unacceptable risks brought by Sun Yuchen. The 'heavy holder' of Bitcoin, MSTR, fell by 5.41%, and BTC Digital fell by 14.48%.
Other key stocks include: (1) Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer rose by 4.67%, and the company expects revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion in 2025. (2) Quantum Computing concept stocks rose by 51.53%, triggering a trading halt as the company announced previous acquisition of a NASA contract. Quantum rose over 33.5% before closing up 1.93%.
编辑/jayden
