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系好安全带!“恐怖数据”恐引发市场剧烈波动 欧元、英镑、日元和黄金最新交易分析

Buckle up! "Terrifying data" may trigger severe market fluctuations. Latest trading analysis on the Euro, British Pound, Yen, and Gold.

FX168 ·  Dec 17 15:51

#ForexTechnical analysis.#FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia-Pacific) reported that on Tuesday (December 17), during the early European session, the USD was around 106.90; spot Gold was traded at about $2654 per ounce. On this trading day, investors will welcome the US retail sales data, which is expected to trigger significant market volatility. The well-known financial news website Economies.com published a forward-looking analysis on Tuesday regarding the latest trends of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

At 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, the US Census Bureau will release the retail sales data for November. This data is known as the "horrifying data" because it usually has a substantial impact on the financial markets, hence it is likely to affect the trends of the USD, Gold, and other Assets.

Authoritative media surveys show that the US retail sales month-on-month for November is expected to grow by 0.5%, up from an increase of 0.4% in October.

Analysts point out that if the US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the USD may strengthen, leading to a decline in major non-USD currencies and Gold prices; on the other hand, a disappointing retail sales report will hit the USD.

At 22:15 Beijing time on Tuesday, the industrial output for November will be released, expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, up from a decline of 0.3% in October. The US capacity utilization for November is expected to be 77.2%, compared to the previous value of 77.1%.

At 23:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, the NAHB Housing Price Index for December in the USA will be published, expected to rise slightly to 47, compared to the previous value of 46.

Below is Economies.com's technical analysis of major currency pairs and gold:

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is fluctuating around the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the Stochastic Indicators continue to signal overbought conditions. As long as the exchange rate remains below 1.0563, the bearish scenario will remain valid for the time being. The first target we are waiting for is 1.0475, and a break below this level will pave the way for the exchange rate to drop toward the next target of 1.0400.

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(EUR/USD 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)

On the other hand, it should be noted that if EUR/USD breaks above 1.0563 and maintains above this level, it will lead to a new upward trend for the exchange rate and further bullish adjustments, with the next target at 1.0635.

It is expected that today EUR/USD will trade betweenResistanceBetween 1.0440 and Resistance at 1.0580.

The expected trend for EUR/USD today is Bearish.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD rose yesterday and tested the 50-period EMA, which currently forms a strong Resistance. It is noteworthy that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is gradually losing its positive momentum, anticipating that this factor will push the exchange rate to resume the expected bearish trend in the near future, with the next target aimed at 1.2566.

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(GBP/USD 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)

Therefore, the forecast is that GBP/USD will remain in a bearish trend for some time. It should be noted that if GBP/USD breaks through 1.2735, it will halt the bearish trend and lead to more upward movement during the day.

Today's trading of GBP/USD is expected to be between the support level of 1.2600 and the resistance level of 1.2750.

The expected trend for GBP/USD today is Bearish.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY successfully reached 154.00, currently near this level. Waiting for the price to increase further and reach the bullish target of 154.95 in the short term.

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(USD/JPY 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)

The 50-period EMA continues to support USD/JPY in a bullish trend. Unless the price falls below 152.70 and the daily closing price is below this level, the bullish expectation will remain valid.

It is expected that today the USD/JPY trading will be between the Support level of 153.20 and the Resistance level of 154.90.

Today's expected trend for USD/JPY is bullish.

Gold

Since yesterday, a narrow Range has dominated the movement of Gold prices. It is worth noting that the Indicators have lost their positive momentum and are currently signaling a bearish trend. This factor is awaited to drive Gold prices to resume the anticipated bearish trend in the near future. The first target for Gold prices is to break below 2645.00 USD/oz, and breaking below this level would reinforce the expectation for prices to decline towards the next bearish targets of 2615.00 USD/oz and 2600.00 USD/oz.

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(Spot gold 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)

On the other hand, it should be noted that if Gold prices break above 2683.20 USD/oz, this will halt the anticipated decline and lead Gold prices back to the primary bullish trend.

It is expected that today Gold prices will trade between the Support level of 2635.00 USD/oz and the Resistance level of 2670.00 USD/oz.

Today's expected trend for gold prices is bearish.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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