招商证券指出，2024上半年油轮市场受益于红海绕行。但下半年受制于中东减产运价偏弱。由于OPEC+推迟减产，同时12月货盘仍然较少，目前运价处于历史相对低位。该行预计，25年VLCC市场供需关系向好，旺季时大船市场运价仍有向上弹性。COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138) fell nearly 3% in early trading, as of the time of writing, it was down 2.83% at 5.83 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 41.5938 million Hong Kong dollars.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138) fell nearly 3% in early trading, as of the time of writing, it was down 2.83% at 5.83 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 41.5938 million Hong Kong dollars.
In news, it has been reported that OPEC+ is currently implementing three groups of production cuts: a "formal" cut of 2 million barrels per day, a "voluntary" cut of 1.66 million barrels per day, and an additional voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+’s eight member countries were originally scheduled to gradually lift the third group of the additional voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day starting in January 2025, over a period of 12 months. However, due to unfavorable market conditions, these countries have decided to delay this plan by three months.
China Merchants pointed out that in the first half of 2024, the tanker market will benefit from the detour around the Red Sea. However, in the second half of the year, the market will be constrained by weak freight rates due to Middle Eastern production cuts. As OPEC+ has delayed the production cuts and there are still relatively few cargoes in December, freight rates are currently at historically low levels. The bank expects that in 2025, the supply and demand relationship in the VLCC market will improve, and during the peak season, there will still be upward elasticity in freight rates for large vessels.
