Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SGX:U96) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Sembcorp Industries Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Sembcorp Industries had debt of S$8.36b, up from S$7.46b in one year. However, it does have S$1.21b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about S$7.14b.
How Strong Is Sembcorp Industries' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Sembcorp Industries had liabilities of S$2.95b due within 12 months, and liabilities of S$9.33b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of S$1.21b and S$1.99b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by S$9.09b.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of S$9.79b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Sembcorp Industries has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.2 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even more troubling is the fact that Sembcorp Industries actually let its EBIT decrease by 8.3% over the last year. If it keeps going like that paying off its debt will be like running on a treadmill -- a lot of effort for not much advancement. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sembcorp Industries's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Sembcorp Industries generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 82% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
Neither Sembcorp Industries's ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, nor its interest cover gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. It's also worth noting that Sembcorp Industries is in the Integrated Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Sembcorp Industries is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Sembcorp Industries has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.