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安联投资:预计美联储本周减息25个基点 倾向持有抗通胀债券

Allianz Investment: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, leaning towards holding anti-inflation Bonds.

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 16 21:16

From a strategy perspective, Allianz Investment tends to trade on a technical basis regarding duration, currently preferring to Hold short-term US Bonds relative to the European Bonds market.

According to Zhito Finance APP, Michael Krautzberger, the Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income at Allianz Investment, expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points at the policy meeting on December 18, setting the target Range for the federal benchmark rate at 4.25-4.5%. From a strategy perspective, Allianz Investment tends to trade on a technical basis regarding duration, currently preferring to Hold short-term US Bonds relative to the European Bonds market. They are also Bullish on the steepening of the US curve strategy, as supply will remain high. In addition, considering the potential inflation risk in the USA in 2025, Allianz Investment also tends to Hold inflation-linked Bonds.

However, since the last meeting of the Federal Reserve in November, US economic data has remained relatively optimistic, and the results of the US election indicate that the policy stance in 2025 will favor economic growth. The bank stated that market pricing has shifted to reflect an expectation that the Federal Reserve will not lean towards a "dovish" policy in the future, with current expectations that the federal benchmark rate will be just below 4% by June 2025. Given the current US economic environment, the bank believes that the current pricing seems reasonable. Looking ahead to early 2025, Allianz Investment believes that the Federal Reserve may adjust policy towards neutrality more cautiously and may pause rate cuts in January while assessing new data.

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