AI has been the biggest Technology revolution in recent years, and humanoid robots are regarded as the best carriers of embodied intelligence. Meanwhile, the high penetration rate of Electric Vehicles provides a solid foundation for Algo development in humanoid robots. With advancements in AI technology and the maturity of the Industry Chain for Electric Vehicles, mass production of humanoid robots has become possible.

On the evening of November 28, Tesla's official Twitter account updated a video showing the robot's ability to catch tennis balls empty-handed, demonstrating improved reaction speed and hand flexibility. Musk expects that by 2025, Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot will achieve mass production in the thousands, marking the dawn of humanoid robot mass production; by 2026, Optimus will be mass-produced and exported, with long-term demand reaching tens of billions of units.

With the rapid iteration of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot generating excitement, domestic and foreign industrial capital is accelerating its layout in the humanoid robot field. Major global tech giants such as Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Samsung, Tencent, OpenAI, and SoftBank Group are investing in humanoid robot Ventures or directly entering research and development. Companies that have launched humanoid robots abroad include Tesla, Norway's 1XTechnologies, USA's Agility Robotics, USA's Figure, UK's Engineered Arts, Canada's Sanctuary AI, Spain's PAL Robotics, South Korea's Rainbow Robotics (Samsung's investment), Honda, General Motors, and others. Domestically, dozens of companies have launched humanoid or bionic robots, including Tencent, Xiaomi, DJI Innovations, Ubtech, Yushu Technology, and Kepler.

Under the triple catalysts of leading companies like Tesla, the iteration of software and hardware technologies, and supportive relevant policies, the development trend of the humanoid robot industry has become a key focus of recent financial speculation. Data shows that since September 24, the robot Index (884126.WI) has increased by 44.38%, with a cumulative rise of 14.63% in the fourth quarter.

From the market trading of recent years, the heated market transactions indicate an impending industry explosion, and humanoid robots are no exception.

The explosion of humanoid robots is imminent, with long-term demand reaching tens of billions of units.

From an industrial perspective, humanoid robots are still in the early stages of industrialization. The current production costs for humanoid robots are high, generally starting at 0.1 million dollars. The core components have high thresholds and need to achieve continuous cost reduction through large-scale mass production. Humanoid robots also need to make ongoing technological advancements and achieve effective integration in mechanical design, motion control, and AI fields to realize large-scale production and usage.

Due to differing perceptions regarding the speed of industry advancement and commercialization processes, various institutions have significantly different predictions for the industry's market size, with predictions for the market space in 2030 ranging from hundreds of millions to hundreds of billions of dollars. It is widely believed that by 2030, the global humanoid robot market could reach hundreds of billions of dollars. According to an article released on October 1, 2022, by Tesla's official WeChat account, Tesla robots are expected to be delivered within 3-5 years (around 2025-2028), with a production volume reaching millions, and a price possibly under $20,000, corresponding to a market size that could reach hundreds of billions of dollars.

The Chinese government keenly captures the development opportunities of humanoid robots and fully supports the innovative development of future industries at the policy level. At the national level, frequent policies related to robots are issued, with particular emphasis on humanoid robots as a key area of future industry. Relevant government departments are adjusting strategic directions and introducing a series of policies to promote and lead the development of China's humanoid robot industry towards high quality. Under the guidance of policies and the active participation of leading enterprises, the update of robot technology and the development of the industry in China are witnessing a surge.

According to the "Humanoid Robot Industry Research Report" published at the first China Humanoid Robot Industry Conference in April 2024, the humanoid robot market size in China is expected to reach approximately 2.76 billion yuan in 2024, 10.471 billion yuan in 2026, and 75 billion yuan in 2029, accounting for 32.7% of the world's total, ranking first globally, with the expectation of reaching a scale of 300 billion yuan by 2035.

In the long term, due to issues such as an aging population, a decline in the labor force, and rising labor costs, the application prospects for humanoid robots are broad. With significant advancements in general AI, perception, and power systems, the performance of humanoid robots has been comprehensively improved, costs have gradually decreased, deployment has accelerated, and relevant application scenarios continue to expand, covering applications across various fields from manufacturing to medical, rescue, and service industries. Musk predicts an eventual human-to-robot ratio of 1:1 or even 2:1, with future demand for humanoid robots reaching 10 billion units or more.

The localization rate of the three main systems of humanoid robots is relatively low, and there is significant potential for domestic substitution in the industry chain.

From the perspective of the composition of humanoid robots, humanoid robots consist of three major systems: sensor system, Control System, and execution system.

According to Zhito Finance APP, the humanoid robot industry chain can be divided into three major parts: upstream, midstream, and downstream. The upstream includes raw materials, components, and Software platforms, with core components including Servo systems, actuators, reducers, Control System, and drivers, which account for the highest cost, involve significant technical difficulty, and have high barriers to entry. The midstream involves the Ontology and system integration, while the downstream pertains to application scenarios.

The upstream of humanoid robots mainly consists of Hardware (components) and software system suppliers, including precision reducers (Harmonic Drive, Rotate Vector (RV) Reducer, planetary reducers), Servo Motors (frameless torque motors, Hollow Cup Motor), screw rods, Sensors (visual sensors, force sensors, IMU), etc.; the software part includes perception software (speech recognition, visual recognition, position recognition, motion recognition), cognitive software (language processing, deep semantics, knowledge graphs), and decision-making software (path planning, behavior decision-making). According to Tesla AI Day data, a humanoid robot typically includes a linear system, a rotation system, a dexterous hand, a perception system, and components such as chips and Lithium Battery.

From the perspective of specific components, the proportion of core components such as Frame-less Torque Motors, Reducers, Six-Dimensional Force Sensors, Planetary Roller Screws, Hollow Cup Motors, and Drivers exceeds 60%.

From the Industry Chain perspective, the supply chain shared by Humanoid Robots, Industrial Robots, and New Energy Autos, such as Batteries, Chips, Sensors, Controllers, can realize collaborative migration of the supply chain. The overseas humanoid robot Industry Chain is relatively mature and leading in technological research and development, supply chain completeness, and market promotion. Core component manufacturers can be divided into two major camps: Japanese and European & American. The Japanese camp focuses more on components such as Motors, Sensors, and Reducers, while the European & American camp has a significant competitive advantage in Control Systems and AI Processors.

However, in the past two years, domestic relevant manufacturers have gradually caught up in technology.

For example, Frame-less Torque Motors are currently dominated by international companies such as Kollmorgen, Moog, Maxon Motor, BEI Kimco, Woodward, and Shinano Kenshi in the market. Domestic manufacturers such as Kinco Automation (Shanghai) Co.,Ltd and Guangzhou Haozhi Industrial are expected to achieve breakthroughs in market share by leveraging the cost advantages of the domestic Industry Chain. Additionally, the leading Harmonic Drive manufacturer, Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, also possesses the electromechanical integration capabilities of Frame-less Torque Motors.

Domestically, local enterprises have a relatively scarce product layout. Regarding lead precision, leading companies globally in Planetary Roller Screws can achieve full coverage from G1-G5, while China lacks companies that meet this standard; in terms of maximum dynamic load and maximum static load, domestic Planetary Roller Screw products are significantly lower than foreign products of the same specifications. Currently, the technology of large domestic manufacturing enterprises is gradually improving, with mid-to-low-end products being less different or on par with foreign counterparts. From the perspective of market competition tiers, companies such as Nanjing Craft, Bot Precision, Youshite, and Shangyin Technology are focusing on producing Planetary Roller Screw products and belong to the first tier; the second tier includes pioneers that are in the R&D and trial production stages, including actively integrating Wuxi Best Precision Machinery, Shenzhen Inovance Technology, and manufacturers producing precision mechanical components such as Dingzhi Technology and Zhejiang XCC Group. The market scale of the Chinese Roller Screw industry only accounts for 5% of the global market, approximately 0.44 billion yuan, with huge potential for domestic substitution.

On the company side, UBTECH Robotics (09880) is a leader in humanoid robots and one of the very few companies in the world with full-stack technical capabilities for humanoid robots. It was listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 29, 2023, becoming the first stock of domestic humanoid robots. The Walker X humanoid robot stands at 130 cm tall, weighs 63 kg, has 41 high-performance Servo Motor joints, a 160° surround 4.6K high-definition dual-flexible curved screen on its face, a dynamic and cool four-dimensional lamp language system, modular design, and a detachable Battery.

WalkerXSLAM (simultaneous location and mapping) and navigation core technologies include positioning and mapping, multi-modal perception, path planning, decision control, wireless positioning UWD, etc.; core technologies for motion planning and control include gait planning and control, stability control, flexibility control (visual detection and object tracking, compliant control, flexible control, drag indication), etc.; core technologies for computer vision include general object detection, Facial Recognition, human-related technologies, etc.; core technologies for voice interaction include voice recognition, natural language processing, and language synthesis. This will enable it to have functions such as stable and fast walking on complex terrains, dynamic foot and leg control for balance and interference resistance, hand-eye coordination operation, safe human-machine interaction, autonomous path planning, environmental and human perception, and human-like empathetic expression.