此前，中国宣布自12月1日起取消铝半成品13%的出口退税政策，引发了市场对亚洲供应紧张的担忧，预计这将提振中国以外亚洲地区对铝锭半成品的需求。This quarter, some Aluminum buyers in Japan have agreed to pay a significantly increased premium to a certain global manufacturer, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of rising Aluminum prices.
According to two sources directly involved in the negotiations, this quarter some Aluminum buyers in Japan agreed to pay a significantly increased premium to a certain global manufacturer, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of rising Aluminum prices, and also the highest premium level since 2015, despite being slightly lower than the initial Quote range of 230-260 dollars proposed by the manufacturer. Specifically, the benchmark price premium for shipments from January to March was set at 228 dollars per ton, a 30% increase compared to the previous quarter, surpassing the level of 175 dollars per ton during the period from October to December.
This decision not only reflects the ongoing rise in Aluminum prices but also highlights Japan's impact on pricing as a major importer of light metals in Asia, with premiums paid above the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot benchmark prices, setting a price benchmark for the entire region. Currently, negotiations between Other buyers and sellers are still ongoing.
Previously, China announced the cancellation of the 13% export tax rebate policy on Aluminum semi-finished products starting December 1, raising concerns in the market about tight supplies in Asia, which is expected to boost demand for Aluminum ingot semi-finished products outside of China.
Meanwhile, strong global Alumina prices have prompted some manufacturers to cut Aluminum production, and domestic unrest in Mozambique has further intensified expectations of global supply tightness and rising premiums. Russian Aluminum producer Rusal has also announced a production cut of over 6% in response to elevated Alumina prices and tightening monetary policies.
Additionally, Australia's South32 Ltd. ADR has withdrawn its production forecast for the Mozal Aluminum smelter due to social unrest following elections in Mozambique, further exacerbating supply risks.
Despite weak domestic demand in Japan, facing overseas supply risks and the potential price increase from extended negotiations, a Japanese end buyer ultimately agreed to set the premium at 228 dollars.
Due to the sensitivity of the situation, all sources have refused to disclose their names.
