拟收购标的聚焦液体散货业务，或将增厚公司EPS。对比两次重组方案，青岛港最新披露的重组方案中，拟收购的标的公司数量由原来的8 家降至4 家（剔除5 家，新增1 家），剔除原因主要系标的公司经营业绩不佳、受外部客观原因影响业绩下滑、配套型资产一并调整等原因，新增原因主要系港源管道试运营至今业务发展速度较快，2023 年净利润2.55 亿元，同比增长59.4%。本次方案调整后，标的资产为经营业绩较优的液体散货码头相关资产，有助于增厚青岛港每股收益等核心盈利指标，保障上市公司和中小股东权益。考虑到省内其他装卸业务资产暂不具备注入条件，青岛港尚无相关资产收购计划。The largest foreign trade port in the North, with steady growth in performance and continuous dividends
Qingdao Port is the largest foreign trade port in northern China owned by Shandong. It specializes in handling and supporting services for containers, metal ore, coal, crude oil, etc. It leads the industry in throughput growth, and its comprehensive strength is world-class. In 2014-23, Qingdao Port's operating income and net profit to mother grew rapidly, mainly due to continued growth in cargo throughput. Profitability is strong. In 2023, Qingdao Port's ROE and ROA were 13% and 9.4% respectively, ranking first among A-share listed ports. Qingdao Port has abundant cash flow and maintains a high dividend ratio all year round.
Asset restructuring is progressing in an orderly manner, and the liquid dispersion business has room for imagination
The target of the proposed acquisition will focus on the liquid bulk business, which may increase the company's EPS. Compared with the two restructuring plans, in the restructuring plan recently disclosed by Qingdao Port, the number of target companies to be acquired dropped from the original 8 to 4 (5 removed, 1 added), excluding the main reasons such as poor operating performance of the target companies, declining performance due to external objective reasons, and adjustments to supporting assets. The main reason for the addition was the rapid pace of business development since the trial operation of the Hong Kong Source Pipeline. The net profit in 2023 was 0.255 billion yuan, an increase of 59.4% over the previous year. After this plan adjustment, the target assets are assets related to liquid bulk terminals with excellent operating performance, which helps to increase core profit indicators such as Qingdao Port's earnings per share and protect the rights and interests of listed companies and small to medium shareholders. Considering that assets from other handling operations in the province are not yet ready to be injected, Qingdao Port has no relevant asset acquisition plans.
Low valuation, high ROE, high dividends, outstanding investment value
High return: either high growth or high dividends. From a growth perspective, Qingdao Port's ROE reached 13% in 2023, ranking first among A-share listed ports. The liquid dispersion and container business is expected to drive the company's ROE to rise steadily; Qingdao Port has a high ROE and ROIC, and a low leverage ratio. If leveraged properly in the future, ROE will further increase. From a dividend perspective, the average dividend ratio of Qingdao Port in 2018-23 was 44%, which is at the top of the industry. We believe that Qingdao Port will maintain a high dividend ratio in the future, and the dividend rate will support the investment value. Up to now, the PE (TTM) of Qingdao Port is 10.5 times, which is at the bottom of the industry, only slightly higher than that of SIPG Group. Interest rates have declined, the discount value of Qingdao Port has increased under a sustainable business model, and the investment value is prominent.
Adjust profit forecasts
Considering factors such as foreign trade may be pressured and economic fluctuations, the 2025 forecast net profit to mother was lowered to 5.562 billion yuan (the original forecast was 5.756 billion yuan), and the 2026 forecast net profit to mother was lowered to 5.778 billion yuan (the original forecast was 5.955 billion yuan), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk of dependence on the economic development of the regional hinterland, the risk of port integration. The calculation results are subjective.
