JPMorgan published a Research Report indicating that after the release of the press release from the Central Economic Work Conference, the CSI 300 Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both adjusted by 1.8% and 1.9% respectively during the trading session last Friday (13th). However, considering that authorities are adopting a more proactive policy tone to stimulate Consumer spending, it is expected to be beneficial for the Banks' loan portfolios. Additionally, with the expansion of personal Retirement plans in the mainland, there remains a cautiously Bullish outlook on the financial market's prospects, and the recent pullback will provide investors an opportunity to increase their Shareholding in high-quality Chinese financial stocks.
JPMorgan believes that authorities will also prioritize preventing financial risks as a primary task, which may suggest a stabilization of net interest margins. It is expected that the Central will introduce stronger measures in the future to lower the financing costs for Banks and will reduce the LPR rate. The anticipation of a revival in loan growth, a favorable atmosphere in the Capital Markets, and a moderate recovery in Consumer spending will benefit the growth prospects of banks' fee income. It is predicted that in a rate cut environment, households' asset allocation towards Stocks, Funds, and Insurance products will increase.
The bank is Bullish on Banks that are highly sensitive to the Capital Markets and Retail Trade, with the top choice being China Merchants Bank (03968.HK), followed by Ping An Bank (000001.SZ). It is also optimistic about China Construction Bank (00939.HK) and other institutions that can provide stable profits and dividend returns, as well as China Life Insurance (02628.HK) and Ping An Insurance (02318.HK), which possess strong Distribution Channels and good solvency.