According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Founder Securities has released a Research Report stating that selection model supermarkets, represented by Sam's Club, are developing rapidly and providing new structural opportunities for brand development in the food and beverage industry. Currently, online traffic growth is slowing down, and offline channels are regaining some foot traffic, where the share of traditional KA hypermarkets is rapidly shrinking, and selection model supermarkets are beginning to thrive: 1) The leading selection model brands like Sam's and Ole are expected to accelerate their expansion in China; 2) After helping Bubu Gao and Yonghui, old brands like RT-Mart, LIANHUA, and Jiajiayue Group are making adjustments, and the process is expected to accelerate in 2025, with a focus on the selection model and an emphasis on product quality.

The main viewpoints of Founder Securities are as follows:

From the perspective of opportunities in various sub-industries: the competitive landscape is fragmented, and the current brand awareness of categories is relatively low, with no established consumer trust in sub-industries, making it more likely to achieve superior sales and reshape the supply chain under this model. For example: Snack Food (CR10: 24%), Dining supply chain, and Health products (CR10: 34%). Specifically, companies with a strong supply chain and innovation capabilities are likely to benefit more in this round of transformation.

Snack Food: Sam's selection-based retail terminal and snack wholesale expansion have a large volume per SKU, which can quickly increase once upstream suppliers are introduced.

Overall, companies like Yanker Shop Food, Ganyuan Foods, Jinzai Food Group, YouYou Foods, Qiaqia, and Haoxiangni Health Food are consolidating their strengths on popular products (e.g., Yanker - quail eggs & beef tripe; Ganyuan - flavored nuts), maintaining omnichannel coverage, actively embracing new channels like Sam's Club, snack wholesalers, and Douyin, while continuously strengthening supply chain advantages (improving automation and actively laying out upstream raw materials). Beyond their strong products, each company is also continuously creating innovative items to provide reserves for future development.

Health products: The selection model supermarket channel has significant growth potential, and contract manufacturers with strong supply chain capabilities are preferred.

In China, the e-commerce and supermarket channels for health products account for 56% and 1% respectively, compared to 41% for the sales of supermarkets and membership stores in the USA. There is considerable growth potential for health food in the development of supermarkets under the selection model. Sirio Pharma, Baihe Co., and Ailan have entered some membership store supermarket channels. Under the selection model, contract manufacturers with strong innovation capabilities, excellent quality, stable quality control, outstanding service capacity, and economies of scale are preferable.

Dining Supply Chain: Strong innovation gene + years of experience in serving large B clients make it easiest to penetrate the selection model channels.

Against the backdrop of pressures in the B-end dining industry, catering supply companies are focusing on nurturing the C-end and seeking cooperation with supermarket giants. Unlike ordinary food companies, due to the rich experience in custom services for large B clients, catering supply companies can reuse their capabilities in new channels such as launching new products, providing services, and flexible customization. Currently, leading catering supply brands (such as: Likao, Baoli, Anjoy, Qianwei, etc.) are actively expanding into the selection model supermarket channels (including: Sam's Club, Hema, Aldi, etc.).

Investment recommendation:

In the context of rapid channel changes in the development of selection model supermarkets, the industry first promotes the scattered competitive landscape of the CSI SWS Food & Beverage index within the snack food, health products, and dining supply chain sub-sectors. At the company level, top-tier companies with certain product innovation capabilities and a quality supply chain have been preferred. Specifically, in terms of the symbol within the food and beverage industry, the focus is on:

In the snack food industry: Yanker Shop Food (002847.SZ), Ganyuan Foods (002991.SZ), Jinzai Food Group (003000.SZ), YouYou Foods (603697.SH);

In the health products industry: Sirio Pharma (300791.SZ), Baihe Co. (603102.SH);

In the dining supply chain industry: Baoli Foods (603170.SH), Anjoy Foods Group (603345.SH), Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215.SZ).

Risk warning: Channel expansion not meeting expectations; industry competition exceeding expectations; downturn in downstream demand, etc.