Morgan Stanley published a report indicating that, in the short term, Copper will be affected by a strong dollar and a lack of effective stimulus measures in China, but the situation may reverse in the second half of next year.
On the supply side, due to tariffs causing a reduction in the USA's copper scrap imports, along with a decrease in copper concentrate supply, there may be a reduction in China's refined copper production, leading to tight copper supply. Additionally, the annual contract negotiations for processing and refining fees next year may significantly lower pricing, currently expected to be around $20 per ton. The expectation is that China's total copper demand will grow by 2% to 3% year-on-year next year, mainly attributed to the stimulus from green Infrastructure, which will improve demand in the power grid, electric vehicle, and CECEP Solar Energy industries.
The rating of Jiang Copper (00358.HK) H shares has been downgraded from 'Shareholding' to 'Shareholding', with the H share Target Price lowered from 18 yuan to 10 yuan; while the rating of MMG (01208.HK) has been upgraded from 'In line with the market' to 'Shareholding', with the Target Price raised from 2.5 yuan to 3.6 yuan.
In the resource sector, the focus is on Steel in the first half of the year, expected to benefit from supply-side reforms, as well as high-yield stocks like Shenhua (01088.HK). Preference is also given to Commodity stocks such as Zijin (02899.HK), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK), MMG, Chalco (02600.HK), and CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK).