On December 16, Glory Financial reported that Morgan Stanley expects intense competition to weigh on material stocks in the first half of next year. With supply-side policies in place, a preference for cement, Steel, and Aluminum is expected in the second half, while metal-related stocks may perform better after stimulus policies are introduced. Morgan Stanley noted that recent measures have been put in place to control oversupply in cement production, which could lead to a reduction of over 20%, with cement demand expected to decline by 5% next year, following a 10% decrease this year. The Steel Industry is also expected to see new supply-side reforms, with annual production potentially decreasing slightly in the future. As new capacity is added next year, the supply tightness of alumina may ease. The firm is Bullish on CONCH CEMENT, Aluminum Corporation Of China, CHINAHONGQIAO, and China Shenhua Energy. Morgan Stanley anticipates that Copper and Lithium may perform well in the second half of next year, expecting that green Infrastructure or Consumer stimulus policies related to the power grid and electric vehicles will continue into next year, driving demand for Copper, Aluminum, and Lithium. If additional fiscal stimulus measures are announced in the second half, it would support demand and sentiment, thereby improving metals like Copper that are more affected by macro factors. In terms of Lithium, strong demand from electric vehicle trade-ins and ESS demand have resulted in better performance in the second half of this year than expected. The firm prefers Zijin Mining Group, MMG, CMOC Group Limited, and GANFENGLITHIUM.
大行评级丨大摩:明年上半年资源股偏好海螺水泥、中国铝业及紫金矿业等
Major banks' ratings丨Morgan Stanley: In the first half of next year, resource stocks preferred CONCH CEMENT, Aluminum Corporation Of China, and Zijin Mining Group.
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