Wingstop Inc. (NASDAQ:WING) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 26% in the last quarter. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. We think most investors would be happy with the 249% return, over that period. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.
Although Wingstop has shed US$1.1b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Wingstop achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 39% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 28% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. Of course, with a P/E ratio of 87.35, the market remains optimistic.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Wingstop has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Wingstop stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Wingstop, it has a TSR of 283% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Wingstop shareholders gained a total return of 23% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 31% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Wingstop is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
We will like Wingstop better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
