要约收购中粮包装，旨在提升服务能力。奥瑞金拟通过下属北京市华瑞凤泉管理咨询有限公司的境外下属公司向香港联交所上市公司中粮包装控股有限公司的全体股东发起自愿有条件全面要约，以现金方式收购中粮包装全部已发行股份。中粮包装是奥瑞金的参股公司，截至2024 年12 月13 日，奥瑞金间接持有中粮包装的24.40%的股份。公司将借助中粮包装经营体系，扩大产品组合，提升服务客户的能力。Incidents:
On December 13, Orekin announced the progress of major asset restructuring.
Key investment points:
The offer to acquire COFCO Packaging is aimed at improving service capabilities. Orekin plans to issue a voluntary, conditional and comprehensive offer to all shareholders of COFCO Packaging Holdings Co., Ltd., a company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, through an overseas subsidiary of Beijing Huarui Fengquan Management Consulting Co., Ltd., to acquire all issued shares of COFCO Packaging in cash. COFCO Packaging is a participating company of Orekin. As of December 13, 2024, Orekin indirectly held 24.40% of COFCO Packaging's shares. The company will use COFCO's packaging management system to expand its product portfolio and enhance its ability to serve customers.
Recent developments indicate that all the prerequisites for the offer under this deal have been met. As of December 13, Huarui Fengquan Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Orekin, has obtained a “Business Registration Certificate” relating to the foreign exchange registration of this transaction. The foreign exchange registration procedure for this transaction has been completed, and all the prerequisites for the offer under this transaction have been met. The offeror will then issue an offer document before December 20, 2024 or December 20, 2024 in accordance with the requirements of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region regulatory rules. After the transaction is completed, the company is expected to obtain control of COFCO Packaging. The transaction constitutes a major asset restructuring, but does not constitute a related transaction or restructuring listing.
The integration of the two-piece tank industry is imminent, and the acquisition is expected to complement each other's advantages. According to the company's investor exchange activity records, the beer canning rate in China is about 30%, and there is still room for improvement in the canning rate of the US, the UK, and Japan. Based on the neutral assumption that the beer canning rate is about 60%, demand is expected to continue to expand. After the completion of the offer to acquire COFCO Packaging, it will help the company to further consolidate the main business of two-piece cans, three-piece beverages, and milk powder cans, enrich domestic product lines such as steel drums, aerosol cans, plastic packaging, etc., and achieve complementary advantages with COFCO Packaging in multiple dimensions such as technology, marketing, production capacity, and supply chain, and further expand strategic customers through differentiated positioning and promote sustainable development.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is a leader in metal packaging products. The metal packaging business has a stable advantage. The filling business has entered an upward channel, steadily expanding production capacity, stable customer relationships, profitability is expected to continue to improve, and future growth is remarkable. In view of the resilience of the company's performance, continuous expansion of production capacity, and maintenance of the “gain” rating, we expect the 2024-2026 operating income to be 14.549/15.756/16.904 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.893/0.998/1.105 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE valuation is 17/15/14x (based on the principle of prudence, the proposed acquisition is not included in the profit forecast).
Risk warning: Risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices, risk of customer food safety risks, risk of business layout falling short of expectations, risk of macro-environmental fluctuations, risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations, and uncertainty about the progress of the proposed acquisition.
