投资建议：下调目标价至7.2元，维持“增持”评级。因 24年上半年生猪养殖行情相对低迷，预计2024 年EPS 为0.08 元 (前值0.19元)，2025 年EPS 为0.24 元(前值0.30 元)， 2026 年为0.25 元。参照可比公司2025 年PE 处于20-55 倍区间，平均PE 约32 倍，给予2025 年以30 倍PE，下调目标价至7.2 元(前值9.72 元)，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's basic feed business position is stable. Genetically modified technology is highly competitive and actively lays out downstream variety links, which is expected to improve the company's seed performance.
Key investment points:
Investment advice: Lower the target price to 7.2 yuan and maintain the “gain” rating. Due to the relatively sluggish pig farming market in the first half of '24, EPS is expected to be 0.08 yuan (previous value 0.19 yuan), EPS is expected to be 0.24 yuan (previous value 0.30 yuan) in 2025, and 0.25 yuan in 2026. Refer to comparable companies' 2025 PE in the 20-55 times range, with an average PE of about 32 times. In 2025, the target price was lowered to 7.2 yuan (previous value of 9.72 yuan) by 30 times PE, and the target price was lowered to 7.2 yuan (previous value of 9.72 yuan), maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
The feed business is steady, and pig breeding performance is improving. The feed business is the basic business of Dabeinong. The overall development was steady in 2024. Among them, 24Q3's pig feed revenue and sales increased 7%-8% month-on-month, with a medium-term target of 10 million tons. The number of pigs released continued to increase. From January to November 2024, the total number of pigs released by the company reached 5.6337 million heads, an increase of 5.8% over the previous year; in October 2024, the total cost of fattening pigs was about 14.7 yuan/kg, a significant year-on-year decrease. The company's utilization of idle production capacity has increased, biological prevention and control conditions have improved, and production indicators are expected to continue to gradually improve, promoting further improvement in farming performance.
Genetically modified technology reserves are leading, and traits licensing fees have entered the confirmation period. The company's genetically-modified research and development direction focuses on the two major directions of insect resistance and herbicide resistance. The varieties are mainly corn and soybeans, and genetically modified research and development of other crop varieties is also being accelerated. The company's 4 maize-like products (DBN9858, DBN9936, DBN9501, DBN3601T) have obtained agricultural genetically-modified biosafety certificates (production and application). They have good insect resistance and outstanding glyphosate resistance. The commercialization of the 2024 genetically-modified traits licensing model has been implemented. As of 2024Q3, the company's license fees for traits have been collected and revenue confirmed.
The downstream seed layout is worth paying attention to. The company's seed business consists of its wholly-owned subsidiary Chuangzong Technology and its holding subsidiaries Golden Nonghua, Fengdu Hi-Tech, Yunnan Datian, and Beijing Dabei Agricultural Biotech. By the end of June 2024, the company's seed industry had 155 domestic invention patents, 95 international invention patents and 225 new nationally approved crop varieties (including 102 corn). The company adopted an N+1 strategy for research and development in the corn seed industry, and the company formed joint research with leading scientific research institutes and universities. The scale of seed sales revenue is expected to expand further.
Risk warning: swine disease risk, product price fluctuation, raw material price fluctuation.
