另一方面，我国基础资产收益率持续下行，国内“资产荒”压力凸显，向外发展或是破局之道。此外，近年来境外投资者持有中国金融资产规模显著增长。截至2024Q3 末，境外投资者持有境内股票规模31,347亿元、债券44,405 亿元。公司凭借丰富的业务牌照、深厚的业务资源及强大的创新能力，在境外投资者入华、中资企业出海及中国居民跨境投资等主要业务方向布局完善。我们维持公司盈利预测不变，预计公司2024-26 年EPS 分别为1.39 元、1.53 元、1.64 元。维持公司“优于大市”评级。Matters:
On December 12, 2024, CITIC Securities held the “Go Abroad, Find CITIC”, “Come to China, Find CITIC” and 2024 Investor Open Day in Beijing to share the company's international business development trends and ideas.
Guoxin AfDB's opinion: First, the company continues to explore cross-border business, and its business contribution is increasing. By the end of 2024H1, the company's overseas assets amounted to 303.002 billion yuan, accounting for 20.27% of the company's total assets. In the first half of 2024, the company's overseas business revenue was 6.086 billion yuan, accounting for 22.28% of revenue. Second, overseas investment banks are leading in scale and market share. Since 2024, the company's Hong Kong stock underwriting amount is HK$5.28 billion, and the market share is 5.56%. In the first half of 2024, the company underwrote 1.485 billion US dollars of Chinese dollar bonds, with a market share of 3.25%. Third, the two-way opening of the capital market continues to advance, and there are many business opportunities. On the one hand, residents' demand for overseas investment is growing, and the growth rate of overseas investment is significantly higher than other investment directions.
On the other hand, the return on China's basic assets continues to decline, and domestic “asset shortage” pressure is highlighted, and outward development may be the way to break the game. Furthermore, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in the amount of financial assets held by overseas investors in China. As of the end of 2024Q3, overseas investors held 3134.7 billion yuan in domestic stocks and 4440.5 billion yuan in bonds. With rich business licenses, deep business resources and strong innovation capabilities, the company has a perfect layout in major business directions such as overseas investors entering China, Chinese enterprises going overseas, and Chinese residents making cross-border investments. We keep the company's profit forecast unchanged. We expect the company's EPS to be 1.39 yuan, 1.53 yuan, and 1.64 yuan respectively in 2024-26. Maintain the company's “better than market” rating.
Comments:
Continuing to explore overseas business, the importance of which is increasing
Factors such as large fluctuations in the domestic capital market and sluggish equity financing make it easy for domestic brokers' main businesses to face short-term pressure. In order to promote steady business development, leading listed brokerage firms are exploring overseas business and seeking new business growth space, such as overseas investment business, cross-border wealth management and asset management, and cross-border investment. The overseas business contribution of CITIC Securities increased steadily. By the end of 2024H1, the company's overseas assets amounted to 303.002 billion yuan, accounting for 20.27% of the company's total assets. In the first half of 2024, the company's overseas business revenue was 6.086 billion yuan, accounting for 22.28% of revenue.
Investment advice: The overseas business is gradually becoming a new growth engine. Maintaining the “superior to the market” rating company's overseas business development time, strong business capability, and complete product layout, the current business scale and market share already rank in the leading position among Chinese brokerage firms.
With rich business licenses, deep business resources and strong innovation capabilities, the company has a perfect layout in major business directions such as overseas investors entering China, Chinese enterprises going overseas, and Chinese residents making cross-border investments. As of the first half of 2024, overseas business revenue has contributed more than 20%. Looking forward to the future, as the two-way opening of the capital market continues to advance, the contribution of cross-border business may continue to increase. We keep the company's profit forecast unchanged. We expect the company's EPS to be 1.39 yuan, 1.53 yuan, and 1.64 yuan respectively in 2024-26. Maintain the company's “better than the market” rating.
Risk Alerts
Policy risks, risk of overseas interest rate fluctuations, risk of global economic downturn, risk of domestic economic downturn exceeding expectations, etc.
