#黄金Technical analysis#24K99讯 On Friday (12/13), the price of gold fell as the US dollar held steady at its highest level in more than two weeks. However, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, and the price of gold will remain high this week. FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer wrote an article on Friday to forecast and analyze next week's gold price trend.
Sengezer wrote that after the price of gold failed to stabilize above $2,700 per ounce, it lost its bullish momentum.Technical sideThe outlook highlights recent buyer hesitation.
Spot gold closed the week up 0.58% to $2648.21 per ounce. The price of gold hit an intraday high of 2,726 US dollars/ounce this week.
Sengezer pointed out that looking ahead to next week, the Federal Reserve's policy statement and revised bitmap may drive the trend of gold before the Christmas holidays.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is a big hit
Sengezer wrote that this week, gold successfully rebounded after falling in the previous two weeks, but the price of gold did not stabilize above $2,700 per ounce due to the market's reaction to complex fundamental factors. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement next week may be the final impetus for gold this year.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision after a two-day policy meeting. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will also publish the revised Economic Forecast Summary (SEP), the so-called bitmap.
In September, the SEP showed that the median expectations of Federal Reserve officials for the policy interest rate at the end of 2025 was 3.4%. Sengezer said that if interest rate forecasts for 2025 are lowered, that is, interest rates are cut by more than 100 basis points, it may have a direct impact on the US dollar. In this case, US Treasury yields may fall back, which will push up the price of gold.
Sengezer pointed out that market participants will also pay close attention to the remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell). If Powell takes a cautious approach to further policy easing, emphasizing a gradual approach, the dollar is likely to remain resilient against its rivals. On the other hand, if Powell expresses growing concerns about a cooling labor market and its potential negative impact on growth prospects, the dollar could face selling pressure.
Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (Bureau of Economic Analysis) will release the final revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter, and the November personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index next Friday. The market's reaction to the PCE inflation report is likely to be limited after the Federal Reserve meeting.
Sengezer cautioned that it is also worth noting that position adjustments and/or profit settlements before the Christmas holidays next week may increase volatility by the end of next week, leading to a weakening of intermarket correlation and triggering irregular fluctuations in gold.
Gold's technical outlook for next week
Sengezer pointed out that judging from the daily gold chart, on the daily chartRelative strength index(RSI) It fell back to 50, reflecting buyers' hesitation about the continued upward trend in gold prices.
On the upside, Sengezer said that $2,700 per ounce (integer mark) forms a short-term resistance level for gold prices, followed by $2,720 per ounce (static level). If the weekly closing price is higher than the latter, it could open the door to a test record high of $2,790 per ounce.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
On the other hand, Sengezer added that if gold continues to use $2,670 per ounce as resistance, that is, the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the upward trend since June and 50 dayssimple moving average(SMA) Meet the level at which technology sellers may seek to maintain control. In this case, $2,600 per ounce (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 100-day moving average) may be viewed as the next support level, and the next support is at $2,540 per ounce (50% Fibonacci retracement level).