海外直营市场开店加速，三季度同店增长放缓。24Q3 海外收入18.1 亿元，同比+39.8%，海外业务收入占公司总收入比重同比+5.9pp 至40.0%。24Q1-Q3 海外收入增长41%，其中直营市场收入增长64%，代理市场可比口径收入同比增长22%，海外直营市场的收入占比2023 年同期是15%，今年同期提升至20%。前三季度公司海外同店增长高单个位数，相对上半年16%的海外同店增速有所放缓，去年同期有热门IP 芭比全球热销导致今年三季度增长基数较高。Matters:
24Q3's revenue increased 19.3% year over year to 4.52 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) was 0.69 billion yuan, up 6.9% year over year, all in line with expectations. The adjusted net profit margin was 15.2% (-1.7pp), and the gross profit margin was 44.9% (+3.1pp), a record high. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 12.281 billion yuan, up 22.8% year on year, gross profit was 5.42 billion yuan, up 34.1% year on year, and adjusted net profit was 1.928 billion yuan, up 13.7% year on year.
Comments:
The opening of stores in overseas direct markets accelerated, and same-store growth slowed in the third quarter. Overseas revenue in 24Q3 was 1.81 billion yuan, +39.8% year-on-year, and overseas business revenue accounted for +5.9pp to 40.0% of the company's total revenue year over year. 24Q1-Q3's overseas revenue increased by 41%, including revenue from the direct market increased by 64%, and comparable revenue from the agency market increased 22% year on year. The revenue share of the overseas direct sales market was 15% in the same period in 2023, and increased to 20% in the same period this year. The company's overseas same-store growth in the first three quarters was high by a single digit. Compared with the 16% overseas same-store growth rate in the first half of the year, the global popularity of the popular IP Barbie in the same period last year led to a high growth base in the third quarter of this year.
The total number of 2024Q1-3 Mingchuang Premium stores worldwide increased net of 773 to 7186, and a net increase of 449 to 2,936 overseas, including 302 new direct sales and 147 new agency markets. The direct sales market contributed more than 61% to the net increase, mainly from the US and Indonesian markets.
Domestic store openings have remained steady, and the immediate retail layout has been strengthened. Domestic 24Q3 domestic revenue was 2.71 billion yuan, +8.7% year over year. Among them, MINISO brand revenue increased 5.7% year on year to 2.44 billion yuan, and TOPTOY brand revenue increased 50.4% year on year to 0.27 billion yuan. 24Q1-Q3 showed a net increase of 324 domestic stores to 4,250 stores. The rate of opening was in line with expectations. In the same store decline, the customer unit price was +0.2%, and the weakening domestic consumer demand showed customer flow pressure. However, the company's same-store performance was superior to other offline retail sales. Among them, the recovery of the same store in high-tier cities was superior to that of lower-tier cities, mainly due to the large contribution of IP products in high-tier cities, and the rapid increase in customer unit prices. The company strengthened its immediate retail layout and cooperated deeply with Meituan. It had an 80% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters. Among them, the opening of a 24-hour flash warehouse was accelerated in the third quarter, expanding consumer coverage and effectively improving store performance.
The 24Q3 gross margin reached 44.9% (+3.1 pp), a record high, mainly due to the increase in revenue share in overseas markets with high gross margins and the increase in the share of IP products. Due to the increase in opening expenses for direct stores in North America, the sales expenses rate increased by 5 pct to 22% in 24Q3, and the management fee ratio increased by 0.8 pct to 5.2%. Of these, the increase in expenses of more than 60% was directly related to newly opened direct stores in the past year. Harry Potter launched its first global omni-channel launch since the end of October, setting a number of overseas market records. New stores this year will usher in a peak season in the fourth quarter, contributing to better performance.
Recently, Mingchuang Premium announced the acquisition of 29.4% of Yonghui's shares to become Yonghui's largest shareholder. The strategic significance of this move is that Yonghui can provide people with “must-have products” that maintain daily life, while Mingchuang provides “optional products” rich in emotional value to global consumers, integrating “must-choice+optional consumption”, which can help Mingchuang Premium Group cope with uncertainty and cross the economic cycle. Yonghui's impact on Mingchuang's financial reports is mainly investment profit and loss, which was actually reflected after delivery was completed in the first half of 2025. Currently, Yonghui Supermarket's acquisition process is in line with expectations. Mingchuang Premium and Yonghui Supermarket will later cooperate in procurement, development of own products, and store cost reduction and efficiency.
Investment advice: The company raised its net new store guidelines this year, from 900-1100 to 1,200, including 650-700 overseas stores, 350-400 domestic stores, and 100 TOPTOY stores. The company's annual profit margin is 16-16.5%, of which Q4 profit margin is the highest for the whole year. Overseas stores opened well this year, laying the foundation for next year's revenue growth and providing guidance for accelerating growth next year. Considering that the company's overseas direct sales market maintained high growth and profit margin growth in 25-26, we predict that Mingchuang Premium's net profit for 2024-2026 will be 2.734 billion/3.745 billion/4.82 billion (previous value was 2.809 billion/3.493 billion/4.418 billion), and the corresponding valuation would be 21.9X/16X/12.4X. Refer to comparable company valuations and give the company 20-22 times PE in 25 years, corresponding target The price was HK$64-70.4, and the rating was raised to “Strong”.
Risk warning: Market competition intensifies, the consumer industry is weak, franchisees' willingness to open stores falls short of expectations, rising raw material costs, declining overseas macroeconomic economy, and the imposition of tariffs by the US.