盈利预测与投资建议：我们看好小米汽车交付能力的提高，FY25新车型的发布有望带动收入进一步上升；手机高端化份额上升，大家电IOT 出货量同比增长。我们小幅调整公司FY2024E-FY2026E 调整后净利润预测为247/292/350 亿人民币（前值为252/293/342 亿人民币），基于SOTP 估值法，上调小米目标价为35.8 港元，对应 30x、26x、21xPE，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
2024Q3's revenue reached a record high, the market share of high-end mobile phones increased, automobile production capacity grew at an accelerated pace, and IOT and consumer products performed well.
Key investment points:
Profit forecast and investment advice: We are optimistic about the increase in the delivery capacity of Xiaomi cars. The release of the new FY25 model is expected to drive a further increase in revenue; the share of high-end mobile phones is increasing, and IOT shipments of major appliances are increasing year-on-year. We slightly adjusted the company's FY2024E-FY2026E net profit forecast to 24.7/29.2/35 billion yuan (previous value was 25.2/29.3/34.2 billion yuan). Based on the SOTP valuation method, the target price for Xiaomi was raised to HK$35.8, corresponding to 30x, 26x, and 21xPE, maintaining the “gain” rating.
FY24Q3's revenue reached a record high, and the entire ecosystem strategy of people and cars led the growth. FY24Q3 achieved revenue of 92.5 billion yuan, up 30.5% year on year, and adjusted net profit of 6.252 billion yuan, up 4.4% year over year. Revenue from mobile phones, IOT, and internet businesses all exceeded expectations, and the gross margin of the EV business reached 17.1%, which is expected to be profitable in FY25Q4.
Automobile production capacity has increased dramatically, and the increase in gross margin is expected to lead to an increase in profits. Focus on the launch of the new SUV YU7. Automobile FY24Q3 revenue increased 52.3% month-on-month, reaching 10% of total revenue, while gross margin increased 1.7 pct month-on-month. In October, the number of new car deliveries exceeded 0.02 million vehicles in a single month, and the company raised the annual delivery target of 0.12 million new vehicles to 0.13 million units. FY24Q4 shipments are expected to exceed 0.06 million vehicles. The second phase of Xiaomi's Gigafactory is expected to be put into operation in July 2025, and new car deliveries will be further accelerated in 2025. At the same time, the SU7 Ultra, which is expected to be launched in March 2025, and the new SUV YU7, which is expected to be launched in June 2025, will bring about accelerated revenue growth and improved gross margin.
Global mobile phone shipments have increased, high-end strategies have paid off, and new retail for smart appliances IOT has developed. The global shipment volume of FY24Q3 smartphones was 43.1 million units, up 3.1% year on year, ranking third in the world. The market share was 13.8%, and revenue increased 13.9% year over year.
High-end models accounted for 20.1% of shipments, up 7.9pct year on year, and the market share at 3-4 thousand/4-5 thousand/5-6 thousand price points increased 9.3/9.7/2.4 pct year on year. The release of the Xiaomi 15 series is expected to accelerate the increase in the market share of high-end models, and revenue is expected to increase steadily. Shipments of refrigerators and washing machines in the IOT sector reached a record high. Benefiting from the year-end shopping festival and government consumption subsidies, sales are expected to continue to rise in the fourth quarter. Smart wearable FY24Q3 Global wearable product shipments increased by more than 50% year-on-year, with wearable wristband shipments tied with Apple for the first place.
Risk warning: automobile demand falls short of expectations; market competition is fierce; exchange rate risk.
