我们认为随着公司持续进行研发战略优化，其内部研发费用率或阶段性降低，带动利润更快增长；同时，鉴于公司长期以来优秀的外部合作能力，我们持续看好公司从外部引入潜力管线的能力。公司长期秉持“自主研发、战略合作、市场销售、创新生态圈”四驾马车协同发展的战略。2024 年以来，我们认为公司在自研方面将进一步优化管线质量，更聚焦于重点管线开发，公司研发费用率阶段性有所降低；在战略合作方面，公司通过贝达梦工场、产业基金等方式持续打造创新生态圈，不断提升战略合作和自研的互补协同，丰富公司管线。Key investment points:
We believe 2024 is an inflection point for the company's performance, and the company has entered a new cycle of growth in the release of new drugs.
In 2022 to 2023, we determined that due to the reduction in the price of the core product Extinib Health Insurance and increased competition in the NSCLC market, the company's revenue growth rate declined, and the year-on-year growth rate fell to 6% and 3%. Since 2023, the core indications of the company's newly launched innovative drugs have been introduced into medical insurance and rapid deployment began in 2024, driving the company's performance back to high growth.
We believe that as the company continues to optimize its R&D strategy, its internal R&D expenses rate or phased reduction will drive faster profit growth; at the same time, given the company's long-term excellent external cooperation capabilities, we continue to be optimistic about the company's ability to introduce potential pipelines from outside. The company has long been adhering to the “independent research and development, strategic cooperation, marketing and sales, and innovation ecosystem” strategy for collaborative development. Since 2024, we believe that the company will further optimize pipeline quality in terms of self-research, focus more on key pipeline development, and reduce the company's R&D expenses in stages; in terms of strategic cooperation, the company will continue to build an innovation ecosystem through Betta Dream Factory, industrial funds, etc., continuously enhance the complementary collaboration of strategic cooperation and self-research, and enrich the company's pipeline.
The company's research pipeline is of excellent quality. We believe that some of them may have external licensing opportunities or good data readout expectations. According to the 2024 semi-annual report of Betta Pharmaceuticals, the company currently has more than 10 new drugs under development. On the one hand, we are optimistic about the potential of some post-clinical pipelines, such as EYP1901, to become the next major ophthalmology drug in the world, and the potential for ensartinib to be approved for marketing in Europe and the US (FDA PDUFA20241228); on the other hand, it is recommended to continue to monitor the progress of leading global drugs in the company's early pipeline, including CFT8919 (BiDac degrading agent), BPI-460372 (TEAD inhibitor), BPI-452080 (HIF-2α inhibitor), BPI-371153 (PDL1 oral inhibitor), BPB-101 (GARP*PDL1 double antibody), etc.
Profit forecast. We forecast the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 3, 4.06, and 5.262 billion yuan, up 22.1%, 35.3%, and 29.6% year-on-year; net profit of 0.507, 0.894, and 1.312 billion yuan respectively; and EPS of 1.21, 2.14, and 3.14 billion yuan respectively. Using the comparable company valuation method, we gave it a rating of “superior to the market” by 47-57 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 56.96-69.08 yuan.
Risk warning: R&D innovation falls short of expectations; industry policy risks; market competition increases risk;