公司一期年产100 万吨乙烯正在进行技术改造，将由丙烷进料调整为乙烷进料，预期将于2025 年末建设完成。公司二期年产120 万吨乙烯装置原料为石脑油、乙烷。公司乙烯二期项目所需原料已经同供应商签署战略合作协议，目前项目处于工程最后冲刺收尾阶段，预计2025 年一季度建成投产。随着公司乙烯二期、蓬莱工业园一期等重点项目建成投产，未来公司资本开支将会逐步放缓。Key investment points:
Wanhua Chemical held a performance briefing for the third quarter of 2024 at the Shanghai Stock Exchange Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center on December 4, 2024 to exchange investors' concerns.
Ethylene Phase II is expected to be completed and put into operation in the first quarter of 2025, and the company's capital expenditure will gradually slow down in the future.
The first phase of the company's annual production of 1 million tons of ethylene is undergoing technological transformation. The propane feed will be adjusted to an ethane feed. Construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2025. The raw materials of the company's second-phase ethylene plant with an annual output of 1.2 million tons are naphtha and ethane. The raw materials required for the company's ethylene phase II project have signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the supplier. Currently, the project is in the final sprint of the project and is expected to be completed and put into operation in the first quarter of 2025. As key projects such as the company's Ethylene Phase II and Penglai Industrial Park Phase I are completed and put into operation, the company's capital expenditure will gradually slow down in the future.
The fine chemicals business is progressing steadily, and 0.01 million tons of vitamin A is in the testing phase. The company's PoE project with an annual output of 0.2 million tons has been running steadily, and the performance of industrial modified products and photovoltaic film products is excellent. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of December 12, 2024, the average price of POE Dow 8660/8669 photovoltaics was 14,000 yuan/ton. The alpha-olefin project is under construction and is expected to be put into operation in 2025. The company's self-developed citral industry chain and downstream fragrance products such as geraniol, citronellol, and violet ketone have been put into production one after another, and some products have already been sold abroad. The annual production of 0.01 million tons of vitamin A is in the testing phase. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of December 12, 2024, the average market price of vitamin A was 150 yuan/kg.
Strengthen the allocation of superior market resources to ensure that overseas market business continues to grow. The company will keep up with changes in the global trade environment, adjust marketing strategies in various regions of the world in a timely manner, give full play to the supply advantages of overseas production bases, and enhance the resilience of the global supply chain structure. According to Tiantian Chemical Network quoting data from China Customs, the cumulative export volume of MDI from January to October 2024 was 1.0012 million tons, an increase of 9.95% over the previous year. Refrigerators and freezers have driven the main growth of MDI. In terms of export destinations, the US accounts for 23.3% with 0.233 million tons and is the largest importer of polymeric MDI from China.
Profit forecast: Maintaining the profit forecast, we expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 14.895, 19.699, and 22.25 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 4.74, 6.27, and 7.09 yuan/share respectively. We are optimistic about the company's future growth and give 17-19 times PE in 2024, with a reasonable value range of 80.58-90.06 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: The progress of the new construction project fell short of expectations; the price of the product fell sharply.