欧盟用户偏向低能耗小型车，三因素推动中国车企进军欧洲；亚非拉澳等地自主品牌正在发力。欧盟乘用车整体规模1000 万辆左右，品牌集中度稳定，但欧系车企占比在下滑。欧洲偏好小型低能耗车，新能源渗透率高但以油混居多，用户粘性高、消费能力强，中国自主品牌尚未突破。低能耗消费习惯、中欧市场高价差、中欧车企强合作，三者有望推动中国车企进军欧洲。亚非拉澳等市场日系车型占比高，自主品牌目前正在发力中。LEAPMOTOR's domestic business grew rapidly and joined hands with international giants to expand overseas. LEAPMOTOR is a leading smart electric vehicle company in China. It has maintained high revenue growth in recent years and turned gross profit into profit in 2023. The company launched a new model in 2024 (C10/C16), and overall sales are growing rapidly (cumulative year-on-year +100% in January-November 2024), with monthly sales reaching record highs (over 40,000 in November). The company collaborated deeply with Stellantis and unveiled a global strategy at the Paris Motor Show in October 2024.
The company's advantages come from strong product strength, electronic and electrical full-stack self-research, and international cooperation. The company adopts a highly intelligent and cost-effective boutique product strategy. The company's electronic and electrical architecture is fully self-developed, and can achieve low cost and high intelligence. The “Clover architecture” can be iterated to version 3.5. The company started overseas business through cooperation.
The global automobile market is divided into five major sectors, and the EU market will increase in volume. The global automobile market is divided into five major sectors: the US, Japan, India, South Korea, the European Union, European non-EU countries, China, and other regions (Asia, Africa, Latin America, Australia, etc.). The implementation of EU tariffs is generally moderate and there is room for negotiation, which is expected to increase the volume of automobile exports.
EU users prefer small cars with low energy consumption. Three factors are driving Chinese car companies to enter Europe; independent brands in Asia, Africa, Latin America, Australia and other places are gaining strength. The overall size of European passenger cars is around 10 million. Brand concentration is stable, but the share of European car companies is declining. Europe favors small, low-energy vehicles. The penetration rate of new energy is high but mostly fuel-mixed, with high user stickiness and strong consumption capacity. China's own brands have yet to break through. Low energy consumption habits, high price differences in the Chinese and European markets, and strong cooperation between Chinese and European car companies are expected to push Chinese car companies to enter Europe. Japanese models account for a high share in markets such as Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Australia, and independent brands are currently gaining strength.
Stellantis has many brands and channels, and the basic market is in the European market. Stellantis was formed by merging two major European groups, FCA and PSA, and has a long history and many brands. The basic model of the Stellantis model is in Europe. More than half of sales come from the European Union, but sales in Europe have declined significantly in recent years.
The company released many new products, and at the same time absorbed high-quality domestic channels and Stellantis overseas channel resources. The company released B-series models globally in 2025. The domestic dealer model can absorb high-quality stores from the original joint venture dealers; overseas use Stellantis's channels and operating endowments to expand from Europe to the world. Compared with the models sold by the company in Europe and the best-selling models in Europe, the products are strong and cost-effective.
Profit forecast and valuation: The company will be in a period of rapid growth for the next 3 years. The estimated revenue for 2024-2026 will be 31.4/56.1/81.4 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit attributable to the parent company - 3.7/-0.6/2.4 billion yuan. Using the PS valuation method, the company's reasonable market value in 2025 was $44.9-50.5 billion, corresponding to a stock price of HK$35.92-40.41. It was covered for the first time in the last year, giving it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of foreign cooperation, the risk of channel expansion falling short of expectations; the risk of declining domestic and foreign passenger vehicle demand; the risk of increased domestic and foreign competition; the risk of domestic policy contraction and tightening of foreign tariff policies; the risk of changes in overseas consumer preferences; the risk of rising freight rates and inefficient overseas production capacity.
