In the future, as the cost of raw materials in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain continues to decline and with supportive policies and increasing end-user demand, sales of Electric Vehicles are expected to grow steadily, and the demand in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain will gradually increase.
According to the Research Reports released by HAITONG INT'L, data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in November, the installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 67.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 13.5% and a year-on-year increase of 49.7% (January to November +39.2%). This rapid growth in installed capacity is mainly stimulated by the "old-for-new" policy. In November, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 79.7% (73.6% from January to November), with a month-on-month increase of 14% and a year-on-year increase of 84%. In the future, as the raw material costs of the Lithium Battery Industry Chain continue to decline, coupled with policy support and increasing end-user demand, it is expected to drive the continuous growth of Electric Vehicles sales, subsequently improving the demand for the Lithium Battery Industry Chain.
In November, the export growth rate of power batteries remained weak, while exports of energy storage batteries were strong. In November, the export volume of power and other batteries in China (with other batteries mainly referring to energy storage batteries and a small amount of small power batteries) totaled 21.9 GWh, representing a month-on-month growth of 10.3% and a year-on-year growth of 23.5%. The export volume of power batteries was 12.5 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 15.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% (with a year-to-date increase of 2.1%); the export volume of other batteries was 9.4 GWh, with a month-on-month growth of 4.3% and a year-on-year growth of 90.0% (with a year-to-date increase of 164.5%).
In November, the sales of power and other batteries in China grew by 40.1%, and it is expected that the production will exceed 1 TWh in 2024. In November, the sales of power and other batteries reached 118.3 GWh (with production at 117.8 GWh, excluding stock), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.2% and a year-on-year increase of 40.1%. Among them, the sales of power batteries were 87.8 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 29.7%; other batteries sold 30.5 GWh with a year-on-year increase of 82.3%. From January to November, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China amounted to 914.3 GWh, showing a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.8%, including power batteries at +27.1% and other batteries at +132.5%. In the same time period, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 965.3 GWh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 37.7%. It is expected that by the end of 2024, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China will exceed 1 TWh.
In November, Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD continued to lead in installed capacity, with Eve Energy Co.,Ltd.'s market share significantly improving month-on-month. In November, the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD was 28.7 and 16.87 GWh, respectively, with market shares of 42.71% and 25.11%. Among the top ten power battery companies, Eve Energy Co.,Ltd. saw the fastest month-on-month increase in market share, rising by 1.16 percentage points to 3.05%, with a shipment volume of 2.05 GWh. The cumulative concentration of the top three power batteries was 74.5%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, while the concentration for the top five was 83.3% and for the top ten was 94.9%.
It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in various sectors: Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), Eve Energy Co.,Ltd. (300014.SZ) (with significant marginal changes in power battery market share in November), Hunan Youneng (301358.SZ), Jiangsu Azure Corporation (002245.SZ), Shenzhen Kedali Industry (002850.SZ), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709.SZ), Hunan Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), Do-Fluoride New Materials (002407.SZ), Shenzhen Capchem Technology (300037.SZ), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology (603659.SH), Yunnan Energy New Material (002812.SZ), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (300568.SZ), and Shantou Technology (001301.SZ).
Risk warning: the downstream market for New Energy Vehicles may not meet expectations, lithium carbonate prices may rise more than expected, and the development speed of new technologies may not keep pace with expectations.
