Zhitong Finance APP learned that BOCOM INTL released a Research Report stating that currently, China's independent brand auto companies and battery manufacturers are responding to export friction by building factories overseas. Contemporary Amperex Technology recently announced plans to establish a joint battery factory in Spain with Stellantis, with an expected total investment of 4.038 billion euros, marking Contemporary Amperex Technology's third large-scale production base in Europe. Based on the determination of December's Passenger Vehicle sales, it is expected that the quantity of Lithium Batteries installed in December will maintain a high year-on-year growth trend. However, the pace of electrification transformation in Europe and the U.S. is slowing down, with the proportion of Lithium Battery exports from January to November 2024 in China being only 57% (compared to 84% for the whole year of 2023). It is expected that energy storage will become the main driving force for Industry growth next year.

Bocom International's main points are as follows:

Benefiting from the increase in Electric Vehicles sales, the quantity of Lithium Batteries installed in November 2024 is expected to grow by 50% year-on-year; the installation of Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries continues to show strong growth, accounting for 80%. In November, the retail sales of Electric Vehicles reached 1.268 million units, with a year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +50.5%/+5.9%, and the penetration rate of Electric Vehicles has exceeded 50% for the fifth consecutive month. Consequently, according to the official account of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the quantity of Lithium Batteries installed in November in China increased by 49.7% year-on-year and 13.5% month-on-month to 67.2 GWh. The cumulative quantity of Lithium Batteries installed from January to November in China reached 473.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of +39.2%. The installation of Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries continued to outpace that of ternary batteries, with the installation of ternary Lithium Batteries decreasing by 13.5% year-on-year and increasing by 11.6% month-on-month, whereas the installation of Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries grew by 84.0% year-on-year and 14.0% month-on-month to 53.6 GWh, with the share of Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries increasing by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 79.7%.

In November, China's Lithium Battery production and sales saw a significant year-on-year increase, with energy storage exports maintaining strong growth. The total production of batteries in China in November was 117.8 GWh (with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +33.3%/+4.2%), and battery sales were 118.3 GWh (with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +40.1%/+7.2%). In terms of exports, China's battery exports in November were 21.9 GWh, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +23.5%/+10.3%, accounting for 18.5% of the month's sales, an increase of 0.5 percentage points month-on-month. Among them, energy storage battery exports were significantly stronger than those of Lithium Batteries, with November's Lithium Battery export quantity decreasing by 2.2% year-on-year, while exports of energy storage and other batteries increased by 90% year-on-year, accounting for 43% of total exports.

Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD (002594.SZ) have successively released batteries for Construction Machinery. Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology launched the Tianxing heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle series batteries, which include the Supercharged version (with a peak charging capacity of 4C, providing 70% charge in 15 minutes), Long-life version (with an ultra-long lifespan of 15 years or 3 million kilometers), Long-range version (achieving full chassis layout with 1000 kWh, ultra-long range of 800 kilometers), and High-strength version (developed specifically for Construction Machinery). BYD released three types of Construction Machinery batteries, including the Integrated version (320 Wh/L integration), Super Mix version (supports 4C fast charging, reaching 20-80% SOC in just 10 minutes), and Fast Charging version (supports 400A current, with maximum voltage rating of 1500V). The profitability of Commercial Vehicle batteries is generally better than that of Passenger Vehicles, and it is expected that more power battery companies will actively layout in this area.

In terms of individual stocks: it is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), which has cost and technological advantages, as well as a leading position in overseas layouts.