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平安证券:预计2025年上市银行整体净利润增速为1%

Ping An Securities: It is expected that the overall Net income growth rate of listed Banks will be 1% in 2025.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Dec 13 13:39

On December 13, Gelonghui reported that Ping An Securities released the annual strategy report for the Huaan CSI Banks ETF Feeder Fund-A for 2025. Looking ahead to 2025, the insufficient effective demand and the continued pressure on the pricing level of the Assets are important factors restraining the upward elasticity of bank profitability. On one hand, the insufficient effective demand still inhibits the growth rate, with the new Crediting scale expected to be between 17.9 trillion and 19.2 trillion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a year-end growth rate of 7.0% to 7.5%, slightly reducing the contribution of scale effects to profitability. On the other hand, the interest margin level is also constrained by the downward pricing level of the Assets. Factors such as LPR reduction, adjustments to existing mortgages, and implicit debt replacement will continue to impact asset pricing. However, considering the accelerated speed of deposit rate reductions, improved progress in deposit repricing, and regulatory measures on manual interest supplementation and interbank liabilities, it may accelerate the release of cost-side dividends. Thus, the decline in interest margins is expected to narrow slightly throughout 2025. Regarding asset quality, it is expected to remain robust, with continuous policy support to underwrite risks, stabilizing core Indicators and providing continuous backflow of provisions to profit levels. Overall, the net income growth rate of listed banks is expected to be around 1.0% in 2025.

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