During the Asian morning trading session, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent Crude Oil Product Futures prices remained stable, as the market weighs the predictions of a supply surplus in 2025 and a reduction in refinery running.

As of 12:00 noon Beijing time, the price of ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts was $73.39 per barrel, down $2 from the settlement price on December 12, with the contract ultimately falling by $11 on that day.

The price of the NYMEX Crude Oil Product Block Orders contract was $70.01 per barrel, down $1 from the settlement price on December 12, with the contract ultimately dropping by $27 on that day.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil demand growth will remain sluggish next year, but its latest forecast shows a slightly higher outlook for next year compared to the previous report.

The agency has raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 0.09 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, primarily due to China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This is expected to increase global oil consumption to 0.1039 billion barrels per day.

However, the IEA has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 0.08 million barrels per day to 0.84 million barrels per day, mainly due to "lower-than-expected oil production from non-OECD countries such as Saudi Arabia and Indonesia."

The organization stated that oil demand growth in non-OECD countries in the third quarter was 0.32 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The IEA stated that demand growth will be weak in the next two years, reflecting the "overall unfavorable macroeconomic environment and the changing patterns of oil usage." Petrochemical feedstocks will drive demand growth, while the demand for transportation fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioral and technological advancements."

On December 12, the IEA stated that due to the reduction of the global running forecast for 2025, refineries will resume regular economic operating cuts to support product refining profits. The IEA indicated in its OMR that the abnormally high product profit margins following the COVID-19 pandemic have passed. The global processing rate is expected to be lower than previously predicted at 83.3 million barrels per day next year, which is 0.07 million barrels per day lower than last month's report, with growth expected in Africa, the Middle East, Other Asia, and China.

Due to severe weather leading to port closures, several major ports in Mexico, along with state-owned oil company Pemex's oil platforms and crude oil export terminals, have ceased operations since mid-week.

According to port authorities, this situation has caused disruptions in operations at the country's top five ports for crude oil and refined fuel products imports and exports as well as coastal shipping. Most ports have completely stopped operations.

(The above content is from Argus, an independent international energy and commodity price assessment agency)