The World Gold Council points out that looking ahead, everyone's attention is focused on the impact of Trump's second term on the Global economy.
On Thursday, spot Gold plummeted during trading, falling to around 2680 USD/ounce, down more than 1% for the day. Spot Silver also saw a decline of more than 1% during the day. This followed the release of the US November PPI report, which exceeded expectations, with a monthly rate of 0.4%, compared to an expectation of 0.2%, and the previous value revised from 0.20% to 0.3%; the annual rate recorded at 3%, significantly above the expected 2.6%, with the previous value revised from 2.4% to 2.6%.
Despite this, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December remain overwhelming. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the USA unexpectedly rose last week, which countered doubts about the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
However, independent Analyst Ross Norman warned that following the significant rise in Gold prices this year, traders might look to take profits.
The World Gold Council also stated on Thursday that after reaching a historic high this year, the rate of increase in Gold prices will slow down in 2025.
According to the World Gold Council's report, Gold prices have risen by over 30% so far in 2024, but the increases next year may be affected by variables such as economic growth and inflation. The industry association mentioned in the 2025 outlook report released on Thursday that a trade war potentially occurring during the second term of US President Trump, along with a complicated interest rate outlook, could influence economic growth and harm the demand of investors and Consumers.
The report stated, "All eyes are focused on the USA. Trump's second term may boost the local economy, but it could also trigger considerable anxiety among global investors."
The rebound in Gold prices at the beginning of 2024 was driven by a significant amount of purchases by central banks across various countries, especially the Central Bank of China and other central banks in Emerging Markets. Coupled with the recent monetary easing policy of the Federal Reserve and the increased safe-haven demand triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, this further boosted Gold prices. However, due to the dollar rebounding after Trump's election victory, the increase in Gold prices has stagnated.
Some investment banks remain Bullish on the outlook for Gold next year, with its current trading price approaching $2,700 per ounce. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Gold prices will reach $3,000, while UBS Group's prediction is $2,900.
China's actions in the Gold market will be closely monitored. The World Gold Council states that so far, investors in this Asian country have provided support for prices, while Consumers remain on the sidelines, but "these dynamics depend on the direct (and indirect) effects of Trade, economic stimulus, and risk perception."
The Council stated that if the world sees "significant interest rate reductions, or deteriorating geopolitical or financial market conditions," Gold will rise. Lower interest rates are typically favorable for Gold because it does not pay interest.
The report pointed out that "the ultimate price performance of Gold will depend on the interaction of four key driving factors: economic expansion; risk sentiment;opportunity cost; and momentum."