Colony Group首席市场策略师理查德·斯坦伯格（Richard Steinberg）说：“圣诞节前，亮丽的东西变得越来越亮（强势的纳指表现得更加强势）Analysts warn that the "year-end surge of the Nasdaq only pre-empted the returns expected in early 2025."
The surge in Technology Stocks propelled the Nasdaq Composite to close above the 20,000-point mark for the first time on Wednesday local time, with the continued rise of mega-cap technology stocks providing greater momentum for Stocks.
The stock prices of Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META) also reached new all-time closing highs, helping the Nasdaq achieve another integer milestone.
Richard Steinberg, Chief Market Strategist at Colony Group, said: "Before Christmas, the bright things become brighter (the strong performance of the Nasdaq becomes even stronger), but I believe we are just robbing Peter to pay Paul."
Historically, US Stocks tend to perform well in December, especially in the latter half of the month. However, investors seem unwilling to wait for the "Christmas rally" period, with this year's "Christmas rally" set to begin on December 24 and continue until the second trading day of 2025.
According to FactSet, since 1969, the average gain of the S&P 500 Index during these seven trading days has been 1.3%, while the Nasdaq has already risen 4.3% in December.
However, Steinberg believes that the returns from the year-end surge in the Nasdaq are merely a prepayment of the gains expected in early 2025.
Despite the high valuation of US Stocks and the strong possibility of recording gains of over 20% for two consecutive years, investor sentiment remains optimistic before 2025.
Some optimism is based on the "growth-promoting" policies that may be implemented during Trump's second term, such as additional corporate tax cuts, which are not guaranteed. According to Steinberg, this could lead to a weakness in growth Stocks in the first quarter.
The 10-year Treasury yield remains high, and the potential pressure brought about by the New Year's "Bond Vigilantes" due to concerns over increased US deficit spending may put pressure on growth Stocks. "Bond Vigilantes" refers to investors who attempt to influence government policy by selling bonds or merely threatening to sell bonds.
Finally, Steinberg pointed out that as Trump's "America First" agenda progresses, a stronger dollar may also affect the profits of multinational corporations over the next year. He advises investors to rebalance overly stock-oriented portfolios to bring them closer to the standard 60/40 stock-Bonds ratio.
Steinberg said, "Now is the time to manage greed."
Editor/lambor
