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US stock market outlook | The three major futures indices show slight weakness, with both PPI and initial jobless claims data exceeding expectations; poor earnings guidance leads to Adobe dropping over 10% in pre-market trading.

Futu News · 21:20

热点要闻

周四，美股三大股指期货盘前小幅走弱，PPI年率、初请数据高于市场预期

美国至12月7日当周初请失业金人数为24.2万人，预期为22万人，前值由22.4万人修正为22.5万人。

美国11月PPI同比增长3%，预估为2.6%，前值为2.4%；美国11月PPI环比增长0.4%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.2%。

明星科技股盘前多数下跌，Adobe跌超11%，英伟达跌0.54%

比特币站稳10万美元，加密货币概念股盘前普涨， $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$升逾21%，$Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR.US)$涨超9%

热门中概股盘前普跌，京东跌超2%，百度跌超1%

英伟达中国：断供传闻不实，中国是重要市场

英伟达中国官方微博发声明，称近日社交媒体上传英伟达断供中国为不实传闻。公司表示，中国是NVIDIA重要的市场，未来将持续为中国客户提供高质量服务。

谷歌推出Gemini 2.0，全面转向Agent，多模态输入输出

为应对OpenAI此前推出的众多新产品，$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$周三推出下一代重要人工智能模型Gemini 2.0 Flash，成为2.0家族第一个模型，主推原生多模态输入输出+Agent，速度比1.5 Pro快两倍，关键性能指标甚至超过了1.5 Pro，可以原生生成图像和音频，同时支持文本生成，还可以使用第三方应用程序和服务，使其能够访问谷歌搜索、执行代码等功能。

谷歌周三还发布了其首个能够在网页上执行操作的AI代理Project Mariner，由Gemini驱动，能够接管用户的Chrome浏览器，移动屏幕上的光标，点击按钮，填写表单，从而像人类一样使用和浏览网站。

盘前跌超10%，Adobe业绩指引不及预期，AI货币化任重道远

$Adobe (ADBE.US)$盘前跌超10%，业绩显示，Q4营收为56.1亿美元，同比增长11%，好于市场预期的55.4亿美元。Adobe当季数字媒体年度经常性收入为173亿美元，略高于分析师的平均预期。Adobe预计，在截至2025年11月的财年中，营收将达到约234亿美元，不计部分项目的每股收益将在20.20美元至20.50美元之间。

克罗格盘前涨超2.4%，与艾伯森并购案告吹后宣布将回购75亿美元股票

$克罗格 (KR.US)$盘前涨超2.4%。消息面上，克罗格周三宣布，在终止与 $艾伯森 (ACI.US)$ 的合并后，将回购75亿美元的股票。克罗格在声明中表示：“现在克罗格已经终止了合并协议，公司已经准备好部署其产能。随着资产负债表的加强，克罗格将在暂停两年多后恢复股票回购。”

软件技术公司ZenaTech盘前涨超26%，宣布推出一项量子计算概念项目

软件技术公司$ZenaTech (ZENA.US)$盘前涨超26%，公司宣布推出名为Sky Traffic的量子计算概念项目，主要是应政府客户的请求开发的，目的是利用公司的ZenaDrone 1000无人机监测车辆交通。

通用动力盘前继续下跌近3%，遭机构看空

昨日创阶段新低的 $通用动力 (GD.US)$盘前继续下跌近3%，该股自11月14日以来累计跌幅超15%。摩根大通分析师表示，随着特朗普政府的政府效率部(DOGE)寻求减少赤字的方法，航空航天和国防公司明年将面临更大的联邦预算削减风险。他们下调了对洛克希德·马丁、通用动力等公司的估值倍数的估计，以反映这些风险。

谷歌连续两日爆升！call单最高升幅近14倍

$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ 连续第二日大幅收涨，股价触及历史高位，期权交易量亦激增至120万张，为30日平均成交量的四倍，看涨比例高达78%，call单纷纷遭抢筹。其中周五到期、190-200美元行权的call最为抢手，成交量均在2-4万张之间，期权金涨幅最高接近14倍。

另外，期权链上未平仓量最高的为明年1月17日到期、200美元行权的call，有9万张以上的未平仓合约，表明看涨情绪依旧火热。

消息面上，为应对OpenAI此前推出的众多新产品，谷歌周三推出下一代重要人工智能模型Gemini 2.0 Flash，可以原生生成图像和音频，同时支持文本生成。2.0 Flash还可以使用第三方应用程序和服务，使其能够访问谷歌搜索、执行代码等功能。

全球宏观

11月美国CPI数据符合预期，市场聚焦PPI数据

美国劳工部报告显示 11 月 CPI 环比涨幅达七个月最大，虽整体通胀仍高，但租金、机动车辆保险等领域价格压力缓解，推动服务业通胀放缓，劳动力市场降温趋势受美联储关注，市场预期其下周将连续第三次降息 25 个基点。当前市场已消化美国降息预期，投资者聚焦美国 PPI 数据与初请失业金人数变动。

中央经济工作会议：实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求

会议要求，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动高质量发展，进一步全面深化改革，扩大高水平对外开放，建设现代化产业体系，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击，稳定预期、激发活力，推动经济持续回升向好，不断提高人民生活水平，保持社会和谐稳定，高质量完成“十四五”规划目标任务，为实现“十五五”良好开局打牢基础。

“沃尔玛衰退信号”亮起红灯，衰退真要来了吗？

在经济衰退信号屡屡报警中，美国经济继续表现出韧性。目前“沃尔玛衰退信号”处于疫情初期以来最高水平，拉响了衰退警报。今年以来，沃尔玛股价一路飙升，上涨了 80%，而标普全球奢侈品指数基本保持不变，该指标大幅走高。“沃尔玛衰退信号”由前富国银行资产管理策略师Jim Paulsen提出，这一指标通过比较沃尔玛股价与奢侈品股票指数的相对表现来预测经济衰退风险。

“华尔街神算子”：美股明年先涨后跌，特朗普和马斯克将是下跌风险

随着华尔街众多机构分布乐观的2025年美股预期，号称“华尔街神算子”的美国投资机构Fundstrat Global Advisors联合创始人兼研究主管汤姆•李（Tom Lee）也发布了2025年股市前景预测。但是，作为华尔街最长期的多头之一，他这次的预测却并不像前几年那样乐观，对于明年美股走势的预期也没有富国银行、奥本海默资管等机构那么信心十足。美股明年预计先涨后跌

不为CPI所动，美债市场更关注就业数据

随着美联储政策驱动因素从通胀数据转向劳动力市场状况，美债对CPI数据反映平淡，而就业数据对债券市场的影响更为显著。Winshore Capital Partners LP的管理合伙人Gang Hu表示，通胀的波动性正在下降，这使得预测美联储的政策动向变得更加容易。不过，他也强调，美联储仍然关注通胀，只是劳动力市场在决策过程中的权重更大。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:30 美国截至12月7日当周初请失业金人数(万)、美国11月PPI年率(%)

21:45 欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布会

次日凌晨

02:00 美联储公布2024年第三季度帐户资金流动

编辑/ping

Hot News

On Thursday, the three major US stock index futures weakened slightly in Pre-Market Trading, with PPI year-on-year and initial claims data exceeding market expectations.

For the week ending December 7, the number of initial jobless claims in the USA was 0.242 million, with an expectation of 0.22 million, and the previous value was revised from 0.224 million to 0.225 million.

In November, US PPI increased by 3% year-on-year, compared to an estimate of 2.6% and a previous value of 2.4%; the month-on-month PPI increase in November was 0.4%, compared to an estimate of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%.

Most Growth Tech stocks fell before the market open, with Adobe down over 11% and NVIDIA down 0.54%.

Bitcoin stabilized at 0.1 million USD, and the Cryptos concept stocks rose broadly before the market opened, $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$up over 21%,$Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR.US)$Increased by over 9%.

China Concept Stocks fell broadly in Pre-Market Trading, with JD.com down over 2% and Baidu down over 1%.

NVIDIA China: The rumors of supply suspension are untrue, China is an important market.

NVIDIA's official Weibo account stated that recent rumors on social media about NVIDIA cutting supplies to China are untrue. The company emphasized that China is an important market for NVIDIA and it will continue to provide high-quality services to Chinese customers in the future.

Google launched Gemini 2.0, fully transitioning to Agent, with multi-modal input and output.

In response to the numerous new products launched by OpenAI earlier,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$it unveiled the next-generation AI model Gemini 2.0 Flash on Wednesday, becoming the first model in the 2.0 family, primarily promoting native multi-modal input and output + Agent, with speeds twice that of 1.5 Pro. Key performance indicators even surpass those of 1.5 Pro, allowing for native generation of images and audio, while also supporting text generation. It further integrates third-party applications and services, enabling access to Google Search, executing code, and more.

On Wednesday, Google also launched its first AI agent capable of performing actions on web pages, Project Mariner, powered by Gemini. It can take control of the user's Chrome browser, move the cursor on the screen, click buttons, and fill out forms, thus browsing websites like a human.

Pre-Market Trading down over 10%, Adobe's performance guidance fell short of expectations, and the monetization of AI has a long way to go.

$Adobe (ADBE.US)$Pre-Market Trading down over 10%. The earnings report shows that Q4 revenue was $5.61 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase, better than the market's expectation of $5.54 billion. Adobe's digital media annual recurring revenue for the quarter was $17.3 billion, slightly above the average expectation of Analysts. Adobe expects that revenue for the fiscal year ending in November 2025 will reach approximately $23.4 billion, with EPS excluding certain items expected to be between $20.20 and $20.50.

The Kroger company is up over 2.4% in Pre-Market Trading, announcing a $7.5 billion share buyback after the merger deal with Albertsons fell through.

$The Kroger (KR.US)$Up over 2.4% in Pre-Market Trading. On the news front, Kroger announced on Wednesday that it would terminate its merger with $Albertsons Companies (ACI.US)$ After the merger, $7.5 billion of stocks will be repurchased. The Kroger stated in a statement: "Now that Kroger has terminated the merger agreement, the company is ready to deploy its capacity. With the balance sheet strengthened, Kroger will resume stock buybacks after more than two years of suspension."

The software technology company ZenaTech rose over 26% in pre-market trading, announcing the launch of a Quantum Computing concept project.

Software technology company.$ZenaTech (ZENA.US)$In pre-market trading, it rose over 26%, with the company announcing the launch of a Quantum Computing concept project called Sky Traffic, developed mainly at the request of government clients, aimed at using the company's ZenaDrone 1000 drone to monitor vehicle traffic.

General Dynamics continued to decline nearly 3% in pre-market trading, facing bearish sentiments from institutions.

Yesterday marked a new low in the phase. $General Dynamics (GD.US)$Pre-Market Trading continues to drop nearly 3%, with the stock down over 15% since November 14. JPMorgan Analysts stated that as the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seeks ways to reduce the deficit, Aerospace & Defense companies will face greater risks of federal budget cuts next year. They have lowered their estimated valuation multiples for companies such as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics to reflect these risks.

Alphabet-A has surged for two consecutive days! The highest increase of call options reached nearly 14 times.

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ For the second consecutive day, the stock closed sharply higher, hitting a historical high, and the Options Trading volume surged to 1.2 million contracts, four times the 30-day average volume, with a Call ratio reaching as high as 78%, as calls were scrambling for positions. Among them, the calls expiring on Friday with a $190-$200 strike price were the most sought after, with transaction volumes between 0.02-0.04 million contracts, and some premiums increased nearly 14 times.

Additionally, the highest open interest on the Options Chain is for the call option expiring on January 17 next year, with a strike price of $200, having over 0.09 million open contracts, indicating that the bullish sentiment remains strong.

In terms of news, to respond to the many new products released by OpenAI, Alphabet-A launched the next-generation important AI model Gemini 2.0 Flash on Wednesday, which can natively generate images and audio while also supporting text generation. 2.0 Flash can also use third-party applications and services, allowing access to Google Search, executing code, and more.

Global macro

The U.S. CPI data for November met expectations, and the market is focused on PPI data.

The report from the USA Department of Labor indicates that the year-on-year increase in the CPI for November was the largest in seven months. Although overall inflation remains high, price pressures in areas such as rent and vehicle insurance have eased, leading to a slowdown in service sector inflation. The cooling trend in the labor market is being monitored by the Federal Reserve, while the market expects a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut next week. Currently, the market has priced in expectations for rate cuts in the USA, and investors are focused on the USA PPI data and changes in the number of initial jobless claims.

The Central Economic Work Conference: Implement more proactive and effective macro policies to expand domestic demand.

The conference emphasized the need to adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, solidly promote high-quality development, further deepen reforms, expand high-level opening up to the outside world, build a modern industrial system, better coordinate development and security, implement more proactive and effective macro policies, expand domestic demand, promote the integrated development of technological innovation and industrial innovation, stabilize the real estate market and stock market, prevent and mitigate risks in key areas and external shocks, stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, promote a continuous recovery and improvement of the economy, constantly improve people's living standards, maintain social harmony and stability, and complete the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan with high quality, laying a solid foundation for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan.

'Walmart recession signal' has raised a red flag; is a recession really coming?

Amid persistent alarms signaling economic recession, the USA economy continues to show resilience. Currently, the 'Walmart recession signal' is at its highest level since the onset of the pandemic, triggering a recession alert. Since the beginning of this year, Walmart's stock price has soared by 80%, while the S&P Global Luxury Goods Index has remained relatively stable, with this indicator rising significantly. The 'Walmart recession signal,' proposed by former Wells Fargo & Co Asset Management strategist Jim Paulsen, predicts the risk of economic recession by comparing the relative performance of Walmart's stock price with that of luxury goods stock indices.

'Wall Street's Seer': The USA stock market is expected to rise first and then fall next year, with Trump and Musk posing a risk of decline.

As many institutions on Wall Street express optimistic expectations for the USA stock market in 2025, Tom Lee, co-founder and research director of the American investment firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, known as "the Wall Street oracle," has also released predictions for the stock market in 2025. However, as one of the longest-standing bulls on Wall Street, his predictions this time are not as optimistic as in previous years, and his expectations for next year's movements in the USA stock market are not as confident as those of institutions like Wells Fargo & Co and Oppenheimer Asset Management. The USA stock market is expected to rise first and then fall next year.

Not swayed by CPI, the U.S. bond market is more focused on employment data.

As the Federal Reserve's policy drivers shift from inflation data to labor market conditions, US Bonds reflect a muted response to CPI data, while employment data has a more significant impact on the bond market. Gang Hu, managing partner at Winshore Capital Partners LP, stated that the volatility of inflation is declining, which makes forecasting the Federal Reserve's policy direction easier. However, he also emphasized that the Federal Reserve is still focused on inflation, but the labor market holds more weight in the decision-making process.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder of Macroeconomic Events in the USA

(All in Peking Time)

21:30 Initial jobless claims in the USA for the week ending December 7 (ten thousand), USA November PPI annual rate (%)

21:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference

Next early morning

02:00 The Federal Reserve releases the account funding flow for the third quarter of 2024

Editor/ping

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