It's been a pretty great week for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$114 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$517m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.58, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings from 15 analysts is for revenues of US$2.55b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 12% to US$3.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.69 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target rose 13% to US$119, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings analyst has a price target of US$135 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$64.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
