该行分析师Warren Patterson和Ewa Manthey在报告中表示，“我们预计，到2025年，全球大部分局势复杂地区的大宗商品产量将下降，供需平衡则会相对较好。不过，贸易紧张局势升级的可能性是一种下行风险，而市场正在等待，看看中国的（经济）支持措施是否以及何时会影响大宗商品市场。”① ING expects that the Global situation will put pressure on the Energy and CSI Commodity Equity Index markets, but the outlook for Gold remains bright. ② The report points out that the tariff plans proposed by Trump may disrupt the Oil, Metal, and Agriculture markets; ③ However, ING predicts that the average price of Gold will rise to $2,760 per ounce by 2025, primarily influenced by central bank purchases of Gold, and the appeal of Gold asIts price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.an investment.
Financial Network reported on December 12 (Editor: Zhou Ziyi) that ING Groep NV stated that next year's Global situation could put pressure on the Energy and CSI Commodity Equity Index markets, while the outlook for Gold remains bright.
The group indicated in its 2025 outlook that the tariff plans promised by president-elect Donald Trump might disrupt markets including Oil, Metals, and Agriculture.
Analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey at the bank stated in the report, "We expect that by 2025, commodity production in most complex regions of the Global will decline, while supply and demand balance will be relatively good. However, the possibility of escalating trade tensions poses a downside risk, and the market is waiting to see whether and when China's (economic) support measures will impact the CSI Commodity Equity Index market."
The report noted that while Trump is unlikely to have a significant impact on US Oil production, Crude Oil Product will be pressured by strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries. ING predicts that Brent Crude Oil will drop from around $74 per barrel currently to an average of $71 per barrel next year.
At the same time, new liquefied natural gas export plants in the USA may boost domestic demand while making it easier for Europe to offset Russian supply terminals, leading to a drop in natural gas prices in Europe, assuming winter temperatures are normal.
The outlook for Industrial Metals will also be dimmer, influenced by factors including trade trends, potential changes to the Biden climate plan, and shifts in demand. For example, by 2025, Copper prices are expected to drop to an average of $8,900 per ton, down from current levels above $9,200 per ton. In any disputes, grains may also become critical targets, while worries about the weather continue to exert pressure on soft commodities. Prices for cocoa and coffee are expected to fluctuate further next year.
As for the outlook for Gold, ING maintains a consistently optimistic attitude. Due to geopolitical concerns, Gold is expected to continue breaking records this year, with the average price rising from around $2,713 per ounce now to $2,760 by 2025. Most Bids will come from central banks looking to diversify their Forex reserves, while escalating trade and geopolitical frictions may increase the safe-haven appeal of Gold.
Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs holds similar views on Gold. Goldman Sachs now forecasts that by the end of 2025, Gold prices will rise by 11% to $3,000 per ounce. Goldman Sachs listed three main factors driving up Gold prices: firstly, the Federal Reserve's policy actions; secondly, a buying spree by central banks; and thirdly, rising uncertainty regarding geopolitical and stock market risks.
