日経平均は一時4万円を突破した。来週のFOMCの結果待ちのなかで明日も手掛けにくいところであるが、CPIの結果を受けて利下げは確実視されている。今晩の米国では卸売物価指数（PPI）が発表されるが、予想通りの内容となれば、より利下げ観測が強まろう。また、明日は先物・オプション特別清算指数算出（メジャーSQ）となる。日経平均株価は11月のSQ値を突破してきたことで、センチメントは明るいだろう。SQ通過で需給が軽くなることで、年末高を意識したトレンド形成が期待されてきそうだ。On the 12th, the Nikkei Average rose sharply for the fourth consecutive day, finishing at 39,849.14 yen, up 476.91 yen (estimated Volume 1.9 billion 30 million shares). Following the trend of the previous day's US market, which favored tech stocks, buying activity led the market open, and midway through the morning session, it rose to 40,091.55 yen, recovering to a significant level of 0.04 million yen for the first time since October 15 over the course of trading. Additionally, the yen's depreciation to the 152 yen level against the dollar positively impacted export-related stocks. However, there was also a sense of accomplishment from the recovery, resulting in a stable range of movements around 0.04 million yen.
The number of rising stocks on the Tokyo Prime market exceeded 1,000, accounting for over 60% of the total. By Sector, 31 industries, excluding Iron & Steel and Metal Products, saw gains. Petroleum and Coal, Services, Electric Appliances, and Electric Gas all showed notable increases. Among those with significant Index impact, Advantest <6857>, Fast Retailing <9983>, Recruit HD <6098>, and SoftBank Group <9984> performed strongly, while Shin-Etsu Chemical <4063>, Konami Group <9766>, 7&iHD <3382>, and Yaskawa Electric <6506> softened.
In the previous US market, the alignment of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) with market expectations heightened perceptions of a rate cut in December's FOMC, leading to buying in tech stocks, and the Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed 0.02 million for the first time. In the Tokyo market, a risk-on mood spread, and amidst reports from overseas media stating, 'The Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to implement additional rate hikes,' the continued depreciation of the yen also improved investment sentiment.
The Nikkei Average temporarily broke through 0.04 million yen. With the results from next week's FOMC awaited, it remains challenging to trade tomorrow as well, but rate cuts are considered certain following the CPI results. Tonight, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the USA, and if the results align with expectations, it may strengthen rate cut projections. Additionally, tomorrow will see the calculation of the Futures and Single Option Special Clearing Index (Major SQ). Given that the Nikkei Stock Average has surpassed the November SQ value, sentiment is likely to be upbeat. Passing SQ may ease supply and demand conditions, suggesting a trend formation aimed at a year-end rise.
