MKS Pamp SA金属战略主管尼基-希尔斯（Nicky Shiels）说，银行和基金的空头回补（买入纽约商品期货交易所（Comex）的期货并在伦敦卖出合约）推动了价格走势。Funds exited their short positions, and New York Futures prices rose. If Trump imposes tariffs on Gold and Silver, it may further increase premiums.
In the New York market, the premiums for Gold and Silver Futures suddenly rose significantly. Many industry insiders have varying opinions on the reasons for the noticeable widening of the spot and futures price spreads, but a rarely mentioned reason is: Dealers are weighing whether the comprehensive tariff measures proposed by US President-elect Trump might include Precious Metals.
During the London early trading session on Wednesday, the February delivery Gold Futures price was $60 per ounce higher than the spot price, or 2%; the Silver Futures price was more than $1 per ounce above the spot price, or 3%.
Nicky Shiels, Head of Metal Strategy at MKS Pamp SA, said that the short covering by Banks and Funds (buying futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) and selling contracts in London) drove the price movement.
New York Futures trading typically synchronizes with London spot prices, and many Banks and Dealers engage in arbitrage between the two markets through so-called "futures to spot" (EFP).
John Reade, a strategist at the World Gold Council, said: "If some market participants believe that there is a non-zero possibility that tariffs could affect the imports of Gold, Silver, and Copper, then it is reasonable to cover any EFP short positions."
Reade stated: "Doing so may cost a little money, but the potential cost of not doing so is huge." He pointed out that if a 10% tariff is imposed, Dealers would face a risk of nearly $300 loss per ounce of Gold, far exceeding the potential profits from Precious Metals being exempt from tariff measures.
The last explosion in the price spread occurred at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, when traders feared whether they could timely transport Gold to New York to settle futures contracts. During chaotic days, the premium of New York Futures relative to London spot prices surged to over $70, the highest in 40 years.
This time, there were no issues with the physical Transportation between New York and London, which is usually completed by airplane. According to CME Group data, as of Tuesday, Comex Gold inventory was 8.1 million ounces, showing little change compared to the levels so far in December. The inventory was much lower before the price spread explosion in 2020, and after the explosion, as Dealers finally overcame the impact of supply chain disruptions, the inventory also increased.
