芝商所的“美联储观察”工具显示，交易员预计，美联储在12月17日至18日的会议上进一步降息25个基点的可能性为95%，自CPI数据发布前的86%可能性显著上升。#GoldTechnical analysis.#24K99 News On Thursday (December 12), during the Asian market, spot Gold has retreated somewhat after a strong rise yesterday, with the current price around 2709 USD/ounce. FXStreet's chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik wrote an article analyzing the technical outlook for Gold.
Bednarik stated that Gold prices continued to rise above 2700 USD/ounce on Wednesday. Prices will continue to advance towards the record high of 2790 USD/ounce.
On Wednesday, Gold prices surged significantly after the release of the USA CPI data, which notably increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
The CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch' tool shows that traders estimate a 95% chance of a further 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 17-18, a significant increase from 86% before the CPI data release.
Spot Gold closed sharply up 24.01 USD on Wednesday, a rise of 0.89%, reporting at 2717.79 USD/ounce. The price reached a historical high of 2790.15 USD/ounce on October 31.
Short-term technical outlook for Gold.
Bednarik wrote that, from a technical perspective, Gold prices are expected to retest the historical high around $2790 per ounce in the future. On the daily chart, Gold prices continue to rebound above the currently bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average(SMA), while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages maintain an upward momentum. In the meantime, Technical Indicators.Prices are rising in a positive area, and although the momentum is uneven, it still supports the expectation of another wave of increase in Gold prices.
Bednarik added that, in the short term, the risk of Gold price movement is tilted upward. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart show that Gold prices have reached an overbought state, but there are no conclusive signs indicating an imminent corrective decline. The momentum indicator is consolidating above the midpoint, while Relative Strength Index(RSI) Rising to around 72. Finally, Gold prices are trading above all their moving averages, and when the 20-period SMA crosses above the 200-period SMA, it is usually a signal for further increases in the future.
(Spot Gold 4-hour chart Source: FXStreet)
Valeria Bednarik provided the latest important support and resistance levels for Gold prices:
Support levels: $2704.25/oz; $2689.80/oz; $2672.35/oz
Resistance levels: $2722.60/oz; $2735.90/oz; $2751.00/oz
At 11:47 Peking time, spot Gold is quoted at $2708.84/oz.
