JPMorgan released a report stating that on the eve of the Central Economic Work Conference, the Politburo of the Central Committee made a more positive statement on policies, which may lead the market to have a new outlook on the Chinese Stock market. In the coming weeks, the market atmosphere is expected to be more upbeat, and it is believed that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be the major beneficiary. As market volatility continues to be high, this will benefit Stocks spot and derivatives trading, reiterating a 'Shareholding' rating for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a Target Price of 390 HKD.
JPMorgan stated that Stocks spot trading remains strong, with an expected average daily turnover of 192 billion HKD in the fourth quarter, up over 60% compared to the third quarter. Considering that turnover will remain high after stimulus measures are implemented, it is anticipated that the combined turnover of Hong Kong and southbound trading will be 133 billion, 167 billion, and 187 billion HKD for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively. Regarding the derivatives market, the strong market interest may further boost the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's derivatives business, with an expected average annual growth rate of 16% in Futures and Options Trading volume from 2023 to 2026. JPMorgan also mentioned looking forward to further reforms at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, especially the inclusion of RMB-denominated Stocks in southbound trading, which could further improve southbound trading volume.