On December 12, the financial news agency reported (editor: Xiaoxiang) that after the release of the USA's November CPI data on Wednesday, investors seem to finally "confirm" that the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates next week...

The overnight short-term interest rate (STIR) pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points this month exceeded 95% on Wednesday. The performance of cross-asset categories in the financial market on Wednesday also seems to be quite encouraging. Apart from the decline in US Treasuries, investors are buying everything else — US stocks rise, Gold rises, USD rises, Crude Oil rises, Cryptos rise...

其中，最为欢呼雀跃的或许当属美国科技股的持有者—— $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ 周三首次突破了20000点，人工智能(AI)热潮和对利率下降的预期刺激了科技股大涨，帮助纳指续写了这一充满惊叹号的一年。

纳斯达克综合指数周三最终收于20034.89 点，上涨1.8%。在 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ 、 $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ / $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ And Auto Manufacturers. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Driven by major Technology giants, the Nasdaq Index has risen more than 33% this year.

Although the Nasdaq Index's valuation has risen during this bull market cycle, it is still far from the levels seen during the dot-com bubble over twenty years ago. According to LSEG Datastream data, the current PE ratio of the index is approximately 36 times, a three-year high. While this figure is higher than its long-term average of 27 times, it is still well below the approximately 70 times PE ratio reached in March 2000, which should give investors some peace when comparing these two periods.

Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, stated in a report on Wednesday, "The recent rise of the Nasdaq Index is still small compared to the experiences of the late 1990s and early 2000s, the rise is more gradual and seems sustainable."

Regarding the overnight surge, Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen significantly due to the prospect of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next week, and there should still be room for growth.

"The stock market seems to have breathed a sigh of relief because this is yet another stable inflation report," said Wasif Latif, Chief Investment Officer at Sarmaya Partners. "There were no surprises. The stock market seemed to have prepared for numbers exceeding expectations."

In addition to the Nasdaq Composite Index easily breaching the 20,000 point mark, the price of Bitcoin once again recovered the 0.1 million USD threshold on Wednesday. The profit-taking pressure from holders in the crypto space after initially breaching that level seems to be nearing its end.

Additionally, the prices of commodities such as Gold and Crude Oil Product also saw a significant increase overnight. On Wednesday, spot gold prices rose 0.9% to 2717.29 USD per ounce. David Meger, head of metal trading at High Ridge Futures, stated, "The rise in gold is predicated on mild CPI data and stable inflation, which will almost certainly lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at the next FOMC meeting."

Oil prices closed over 1 USD higher on Wednesday after the EU agreed to implement a new round of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which may tighten global crude oil supply. Among them, Brent crude oil futures settled up 1.33 USD, or 1.84%, at 73.52 USD per barrel. US WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.70 USD, or 2.48%, to 70.29 USD.

There is no doubt that with the release of non-farm and CPI data, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week has almost become a certainty. The rise in the prices of the aforementioned risk assets and commodities is also within reason. However, what is interesting or perhaps worth noting overnight is the synchronous rise in US Treasury yields and the USD with the aforementioned assets.

The USD rose about 0.32% overnight, closing at 106.7 points. The yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities also generally increased (indicating pressure on bond prices) - with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 0.9 basis points to 4.162%, the 5-year Treasury yield rising by 3.8 basis points to 4.14%, the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 4.7 basis points to 4.276%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rising by 6.3 basis points to 4.483%.

Generally speaking, when expectations for interest rate cuts rise, the USD index and Treasury yields should decrease. However, although the USD and Treasury yields were indeed under pressure during the session, they ultimately recorded gains, which seems to indicate that the focus in the currency and bond markets was 'somewhat different' from other assets...

From the data performance perspective, the CPI for November released by the US Department of Labor yesterday fully met expectations and indeed reinforced traders' forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next week. However, considering that the data itself increased from the previous value, it somewhat compresses the Fed's room for rate cuts next year.

Data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the nominal CPI for the USA in November increased by 0.3% month-on-month and rose by 2.7% year-on-year, both up by 0.1 percentage points compared to October's previous values. This marks the first acceleration of year-on-year growth in nominal CPI for two consecutive months since March; core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month for the fourth consecutive month and remained at 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value.

The rising expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December and the shrinking magnitude of rate cuts next year can be clearly seen from the comparison in the chart below:

Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, stated that with the employment and inflation reports released, there is nothing to stop the Federal Reserve from cutting rates by 25 basis points next week. One positive sign in the data is that housing inflation continues to slow, but service and housing inflation remain higher than the level the Federal Reserve wants to see. Therefore, he expects that the Federal Reserve will send some cautious signals next week and cut rates, while indicating that they are not committed to cutting rates at every meeting - they will need to continue monitoring the data and ultimately need to see further downward momentum in inflation.

In addition, regarding the news affecting the bond market, the US government released data on Wednesday showing a budget deficit of 367 billion USD for November, a staggering increase of 17% year-on-year, which has also put pressure on Treasury prices. Concerns regarding the long-term debt outlook for the USA have been a stress factor for the trend of US Treasuries.

美股屡创新高！想进场但择时难？ "Monthly Payment Zone"The feature helps you, open Futubull > Market > US Stocks > Click on 'Monthly Contribution Area' > 'Create Monthly Contribution' > Set up a monthly contribution plan, timing and amount to enter the market to seize investment opportunities!

编辑/jayden