根据百川盈孚统计数据，2024 年底国内氨纶存量产能138 万吨，CR4 达到58%，产能集中度逐年提升，头部企业己经拉开身位。未来市场产能扩产主要集中在以华峰化学为代表的龙头企业，行业集中度将持续提升。目前华峰化学重庆在建产能为20 万吨，将依据市场情况择时投放。随着落后的、小规模的产能逐步出清，氨纶行业竞争格局将逐步优化。The decline in adipic acid sentiment has put pressure on the company's performance
The company achieved revenue of 20.373 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 3.51% year on year; net profit to mother was 2.015 billion yuan, up 4.46% year on year. Q3 achieved revenue of 6.629 billion yuan in a single quarter, -6.11%/-6.47% year-over-year, and realized net profit of 0.496 billion yuan, or -12.88%/-40.52% yoy/month-on-month respectively. The main reason for the pressure on the company's third-quarter results was that the popularity of its main product, adipic acid, continued to decline, and the average price for the third quarter fell 5.95% year on year. Demand for adipic acid did not improve during the year, and the average price of pure benzene Q3, the main raw material, rose 12.44% year on year, causing the price difference of the company's adipic acid products to narrow. Coupled with the imbalance between supply and demand for spandex, the average price of spandex in the first three quarters of 2024 was -17.58%/-13.57%/-16.76%, respectively, suppressing the company's performance.
The concentration of the spandex industry increased, and the company reversed the market to expand production
According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, at the end of 2024, the domestic spandex stock production capacity was 1.38 million tons, and CR4 reached 58%. The concentration of production capacity increased year by year, and leading companies had already taken a stand. Future market capacity expansion will mainly focus on leading companies represented by Huafeng Chemical, and industry concentration will continue to increase. Huafeng Chemical currently has a production capacity of 0.2 million tons under construction in Chongqing, which will be launched at any time according to market conditions. As backward, small-scale production capacity is gradually cleared, the competitive pattern of the spandex industry will gradually be optimized.
Introducing high-quality assets to create a new growth pole
On October 28, 2024, the company announced that it is planning to purchase 100% of the shares of Zhejiang Thermoplastics and Zhejiang Synthetic, a subsidiary of Huafeng Group, by issuing shares, etc. Zhejiang Thermoplastics is a wholly owned subsidiary of Huafeng Group. It is mainly engaged in R&D, manufacturing and sales of thermoplastic polyurethane series products, hot melt adhesive series products, and plastic products; Zhejiang Synthetic is mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of engineering plastics and synthetic resins, manufacturing and sales of bio-based materials, and manufacturing and sales of coatings. After the above assets are injected into the company, the company's industrial chain layout is expected to be further improved, opening up a new profit growth pole.
Profit forecast
The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic spandex industry. Projects under construction are progressing steadily, and production capacity advantages are remarkable. Without considering the impact of issuing shares on the company's performance, it is predicted that the company's 2024-2026 EPS will be 0.57, 0.72, and 0.81 yuan, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE will be 15.3, 12.1, and 10.7 times, respectively, giving a “buy” investment rating.
Risk Alerts
There is a risk that the construction of new production capacity falls short of expectations, the risk of raw material price fluctuations, and the risk that the asset injection schedule falls short of expectations.
