In the past few months, multiple reports have indicated that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may be achieved earlier than expected.

AGI refers to a general learning system that can perform well on a wide range of tasks like humans, and it is considered the ultimate goal of AI development. Several leading companies in the AI field, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft, are competing to layout in the AGI area, but there are differing views among companies on when and how AGI will be achieved.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is optimistic about the realization of AGI. He predicts that AGI may be achieved by 2025 and believes that the process will be 'quiet' without causing significant disruption to society. A technician from OpenAI even stated that the latest reasoning model, o1, has already met AGI standards. Although the cognitive abilities of this model have not yet surpassed those of humans, its performance has already exceeded human levels in most tasks.

In contrast, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has a more cautious prediction, setting the timeline for AGI realization between 2026 and 2027.

Microsoft is also actively laying out in the AGI field. Earlier this year, Microsoft hired Mustafa Suleyman as the head of AI Business to oversee consumer AI products such as Copilot, Bing, and Edge.

The realization of AGI relies not only on breakthroughs in algorithms and models but also requires support from hardware technology. Although OpenAI CEO Sam Altman previously claimed that AGI could be achieved on existing hardware, Suleyman expressed skepticism about this.

Suleyman pointed out that existing hardware technology, such as NVIDIA's GB200 series chips, is not yet sufficient to realize AGI. However, he holds an optimistic view of the potential of future generations of hardware and predicts:

The realization of AGI is possible in the iteration of hardware technology in the next two to five generations.

Regarding the specific timeline for the realization of AGI, Suleyman gave a relatively cautious prediction. He stated:

I believe the probability of achieving AGI within two years is quite high, but a more realistic timeframe may be in the next five to seven years.

Suleyman is optimistic about the capabilities of AI systems in certain areas, for example, future AI may learn new tasks quickly with less pre-training. However, he is relatively conservative about breakthroughs in the Siasun Robot&Automation field. He believes achieving similar breakthroughs in robotics may be a difficult process. Breakthroughs in robot technology require not only powerful Software algorithms but also involve complex Hardware control, which is more difficult.

Regarding the Concept of AGI, Suleyman provided his own definition:

A general learning system that performs well in all human-level training environments.

However, Suleyman maintains a cautious attitude towards the realization of AGI and the arrival of the technological singularity. He believes that even if AI systems capable of performing excellently in multiple areas emerge in the future, it does not necessarily mean the realization of the technological singularity. The technological singularity usually refers to the critical point at which AI surpasses human intelligence, a concept that is controversial in both academia and industry.

In fact, Suleyman is more interested in developing AI systems that are truly useful to humans. In his view, the core goal of future AI should be to become a 'partner of humanity,' working for humans, supporting human decision-making, and being a member of the team.