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US stock market forecast | November CPI data meets expectations, the three major futures indexes rise sharply; Quantum Computing concept stocks surge before the market, with Rigetti and Quantum both climbing over 10%.

Futu News · 21:06

热点要闻

周三，美股盘前三大股指期货直线上扬，11月CPI数据符合预期

美国11月CPI同比增长2.7%，预期增长2.7%，前值增长2.6%。

明星科技股盘前多数上涨，特斯拉涨超1%，英伟达涨近1%

量子计算概念股盘前普涨，$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$、$昆腾 (QMCO.US)$纷纷升逾10%

英伟达最新研究成果！开辟机器人导航更多可能，无需地图可实时感知

日前，加州大学研究人员和$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$共同发布了新的视觉语言模型“NaVILA”。亮点在于，NaVILA模型为机器人导航提供了一种新方案。视觉语言模型（VLM）是一种多模态生成式AI模型，能够对文本、图像和视频提示进行推理。它通过将大语言模型（LLM）与视觉编码器相结合，使LLM具有“看”的能力。

盘前涨超1%，特斯拉12月在华销量迎“开门红”：首周销售2.19万辆汽车，Cybertruck已在中国完成能源消耗申报

盘前涨超1%，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$中国周三公布的销售数据显示，12月的第一周在中国市场累计销售高达2.19万辆电动汽车，创下2024年第四季度开启以来的最高周度汽车销量。这一罕见的每周销量披露是在特斯拉创下今年中国市场最佳单月销售业绩后重磅发布，11月份特斯拉在中国市场的整体销量超过7.3万辆，创下年内月度新高。

此外，市场消息称，今日特斯拉的Cybertruck已向中国工业和信息化部完成能源消耗申报。

谷歌高管：搜索人工智能为最大赌注，2024年预计投资500亿

据报道，$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$总裁兼首席投资官露丝·波拉特在一场会议上透露，谷歌最大的赌注在于将人工智能应用于搜索业务。尽管面临技术竞争和人工智能模型存在的问题，谷歌仍坚定推进这一战略。波拉特强调，将人工智能融入搜索业务是谷歌当前的核心战略。谷歌已在搜索工具中引入了AI概览，并在其中添加了广告，同时将购物广告引入Google Lens。

传苹果明年将在智能手表中引入卫星通信与血压测量功能

据报道， $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 计划在2025年将卫星功能搭载到其智能手表上，并正在加紧开发该设备的血压功能。报道援引知情人士的话称，预计苹果明年推出的Apple Watch Ultra将搭载卫星功能。该功能将允许用户在没有手机或互联网连接的情况下发送信息。

投资比特币提案被否！微软倾向于选择波动性较小资产

在本周二召开的$微软 (MSFT.US)$年度股东大会上，一项关于让微软考虑投资比特币的提案被股东否决。该提案由美国国家公共政策研究中心(NCPPR)提交，建议微软评估将比特币纳入公司资产负债表的潜在好处。NCPPR认为，比特币是“极佳”的通胀对冲工具，并指出其表现优于企业债券，是分散公司资金管理的有力选择。

盘前涨超1%，迈威尔科技宣布定制HBM解决方案取得突破

盘前涨超1%，$迈威尔科技 (MRVL.US)$周三发布了多项公告，其中包括在用于人工智能处理器的定制高带宽内存(HBM)方面取得突破。迈威尔科技表示，其新的人工智能加速器架构(XPU)将使计算能力提高25%，内存增加33%，同时还可以提高能效。该公司正在与$美光科技 (MU.US)$、$三星电子 (SSNLF.US)$和SK海力士合作，为加速器定制HBM处理器。

亚马逊推出线上汽车购物服务Amazon Auto 与好市多展开竞争

$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$周二在美国48个城市正式推出Amazon Auto服务，以期与$好市多 (COST.US)$的热门购车计划竞争。据介绍，Amazon Auto初期将在美国全国主要大都市地区提供现代汽车经销商的线上汽车购物服务。2025年，亚马逊计划为线上汽车购买计划推出更多的制造商、品牌、城市和新功能。

盘前涨超3%，游戏驿站Q3销售额同比下降，收益超预期

盘前涨超3%，美国电子游戏零售商$游戏驿站 (GME.US)$公布了最新的第三季度财报，数据显示销售额同比下降，并低于华尔街预期。然而，公司调整后的每股收益却超出了市场预期。游戏驿站第三季度调整后每股收益为0.06美元，高于FactSet分析师预期的亏损0.03美元。净销售额为8.603亿美元，低于分析师预期的8.88亿美元。与去年同期的10.8亿美元相比，下降了20%。

盘前涨超1%，通用汽车退出自动驾驶出租车市场！旗下Cruise将与技术团队合并

盘前涨超1%，$通用汽车 (GM.US)$周二表示，将不再为旗下自动驾驶部门Cruise的自动驾驶出租车开发提供资金，而是将该部门并入其更广泛的技术团队。通用汽车表示，做出这一决定的原因包括竞争日益激烈的自动驾驶出租车市场、资本分配优先级以及发展业务所需的大量时间和资源。

索尼盘前涨近2%，日股今日再刷历史新高

索尼日本股价时隔24年再创历史新高，带动$索尼 (SONY.US)$美股盘前涨近2%。消息上，日前有消息称公司为苹果头显提供VR手柄。此外据悉，索尼上调了截至2025年3月的财年收入预期，预计游戏收入将增加。

盘前续跌超3%，超微电脑可能被踢出纳斯达克100指数，周二收跌超8%

12月10日周二，超微电脑收跌超8%，分析师认为，这可能是因为市场担忧超微电脑将被踢出纳斯达克100指数。纳斯达克100指数是纳斯达克交易所上市的100家最大公司组成的指数，将于年底重新编排，预计12月13日公布。截至发稿，$超微电脑 (SMCI.US)$盘前续跌超3%。

梅西百货盘前跌超10%，本财年经调整每股收益不及预期

$梅西百货 (M.US)$盘前跌超10%，公司预计本财年经调整每股收益为2.25美元至2.50美元，不及市场预期。此外，梅西百货发现内部控制存在重大缺陷。

沃尔格林盘前跌超3%，消息称其正与私募洽商卖盘，该股周二大幅收涨17.7%

美国药房连锁集团$沃尔格林-联合博姿 (WBA.US)$盘前跌超3%。该股周二大幅收涨17.7%。消息面上，据华尔街日报，沃尔格林正与私募基金公司Sycamore Partners洽商卖盘。买卖双方预计明年初将达成交易协议，届时沃尔格林将私有化并退市。集团在美国拥有约8700家门市，据称其中四分之一尚未录得利润。

$Candel Therapeutics (CADL.US)$治疗公司股价盘前涨超140%因为其前列腺癌药物在后期研究中达到了主要目标

盘前涨超90%，半导体公司SEALSQ与IC'ALPS联手加速安全ASIC开发

盘前涨超90%，半导体公司$SEALSQ Corp (LAES.US)$今天宣布与IC'ALPS合作，强化其特定应用集成电路（ASIC）的开发，以应对该领域不断增长的需求。

谷歌量子芯片爆火！一call单期权金狂赚63倍

$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$隔夜大涨超5%，盘前再涨超1%逼近历史高位，看涨比例接近八成，其中成交量最高的为本周五到期、185美元行权的看涨期权，成交量超10万张，不过多数均已平仓；而未平仓量最高的为明年1月17日到期、200美元行权的看涨期权，未平仓合约超10万张。

此外，谷歌call单赚钱效应爆棚，12月13日到期、行权价在190美元的call单权利金最高狂赚63倍。

当地时间周一，谷歌发布消息称其最新研发的量子芯片“WILLOW”取得了重大技术突破。谷歌表示，Willow可以成倍减少错误，破解了该领域近30年来一直在研究的量子纠错的关键挑战；另外，Willow能够在不到5分钟的时间完成一个“标准基准计算”，而即使当今最快的超级计算机，完成这项计算也需要“10的25次方”年的时间，远超宇宙的年龄。

全球宏观

美联储下周降息已成定局？市场屏息以待今晚CPI

市场预计美国11月CPI数据将显示降低通胀率的进展陷入停滞，不过还没有到美联储下周不会降息的地步。市场预计美国11月份CPI同比上涨2.7%，涨幅高于前一个月的2.6%。CPI是衡量美国经济中商品和服务成本的广泛指标。市场预计11月份不包括食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨3.3%，环比上涨0.3%，均与10月份持平。

90%经济学家预测美联储下周将宣布降息25基点

90%的经济学家预测，美联储将在12月18日的政策会议上宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率降至4.25%-4.50%。与此同时，大部分经济学家预计美联储在1月下旬可能会暂停进一步降息，主要由于通胀风险上升带来的担忧。特朗普提议的政策——从进口关税到减税措施——预计将带来通胀压力。

华尔街大行集体警告：投资者“狂热”消退，美股涨势或将放缓

华尔街多家大行押注，随着投资者对科技公司从它们在人工智能领域的巨额投资中获利的能力变得谨慎，美国股市明年的涨势将降温。包括摩根士丹利、汇丰和高盛在内的10家主要银行预计，从现在到明年年底，美国股市主要晴雨表标普500指数将平均上涨约8%。这将低于该指数约11%的历史平均年回报率。

日本央行认为等待下一次加息的代价不大，日元行情短线巨震

日本央行认为等待下一次加息的成本不大。如果加息被提议的话，一些政策制定者并不反对在12月加息。据称，官员们认为下一次加息只是时间问题，而不是是否加息的问题。日元随后出现大幅波动，美元兑日元一度跌至150.99的低点，随后回升约100点，现回到152水平附近。从目前的情况来看，交易员预计日本央行下周加息25个基点的几率在26%左右。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

23:30 美国至12月6日当周EIA原油库存(万桶)

23:30 美国至12月6日当周EIA战略石油储备库存(万桶)

次日凌晨

02:00 美国12月11日10年期国债竞拍-总金额(亿美元)

编辑/ping

Hot News

On Wednesday, the three major Equity Index futures surged ahead of the Pre-Market Trading, and the November CPI data met expectations.

The USA's November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the expected growth of 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.

Most Growth Tech stocks rose in the Pre-Market, with Tesla up over 1% and NVIDIA up nearly 1%.

Quantum Computing concept stocks saw widespread gains in the Pre-Market.$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$、$Quantum (QMCO.US)$Rising over 10%.

NVIDIA's latest research achievements! Opening up more possibilities for robot navigation, real-time perception without a map.

Recently, researchers from the University of California and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$have jointly released a new visual language model called "NaVILA." The highlight is that the NaVILA model provides a new solution for robot navigation. Visual Language Models (VLM) are multimodal generative AI models that can reason about text, images, and video prompts. It combines large language models (LLM) with visual encoders to give LLMs the ability to "see."

Pre-market up over 1%, Tesla's sales in China for December have a 'good start': 21,900 cars sold in the first week, Cybertruck has completed energy consumption declaration in China.

Pre-market up over 1%.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Sales data released by China on Wednesday showed that during the first week of December, sales in the Chinese market reached as high as 21,900 electric vehicles, setting a record for the highest weekly car sales since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024. This rare weekly sales disclosure was made following Tesla achieving its best single-month sales performance in the Chinese market this year. In November, Tesla's overall sales in the Chinese market exceeded 73,000 vehicles, setting a new monthly high for the year.

In addition, market news states that today Tesla's Cybertruck has completed its energy consumption declaration to China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Google executives: Searching AI is the biggest bet, expected to invest 50 billion in 2024.

According to reports, $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$President and Chief Investment Officer Ruth Porat revealed in a meeting that Google's biggest bet is applying AI to its search business. Despite facing technological competition and issues with AI models, Google is firmly advancing this strategy. Porat emphasized that integrating AI into search is Google's current core strategy. Google has introduced AI overviews in its search tools and added advertisements, while also bringing shopping ads into Google Lens.

It is reported that Apple will introduce satellite communication and blood pressure measurement functions in smartwatches next year.

According to reports, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Plans to incorporate satellite functionality into its smartwatches by 2025 are underway, and development of the blood pressure feature for the device is being expedited. Reports cite informed sources as saying that the Apple Watch Ultra, expected to launch next year, will feature satellite functionality. This feature will allow users to send messages without a phone or internet connection.

The proposal to invest in Bitcoin has been rejected! Microsoft prefers to choose assets with lower volatility.

At the annual shareholder meeting held this Tuesday,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$a proposal for Microsoft to consider investing in Bitcoin was vetoed by shareholders. The proposal was submitted by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR) and recommended that Microsoft assess the potential benefits of incorporating Bitcoin into its balance sheet. NCPPR considers Bitcoin to be an "excellent" inflation hedge and points out that it has outperformed corporate bonds, making it a strong option for diversifying the company's financial management.

Pre-market trading rose over 1%, Marvell Technology announced breakthroughs in custom HBM solutions.

Pre-market up over 1%.$Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$On Wednesday, multiple announcements were made, including breakthroughs in custom high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for artificial intelligence processors. Marvell Technology stated that its new AI accelerator architecture (XPU) will increase computational power by 25%, memory by 33%, and also improve energy efficiency. The company is collaborating with $Micron Technology (MU.US)$、$Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (SSNLF.US)$and SK Hynix to customize HBM processors for the accelerators.

Amazon is launching an online car shopping service Amazon Auto to compete with Costco.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$On Tuesday, Amazon Auto services were officially launched in 48 cities across the USA, aiming to compete with$Costco (COST.US)$The competitive popular car purchasing plan from Amazon. It is introduced that Amazon Auto will initially offer online car shopping services from Hyundai car dealers in major metropolitan areas across the USA. In 2025, Amazon plans to launch more manufacturers, brands, cities, and new features for the online car purchasing plan.

In pre-market trading, up over 3%, GameStop's Q3 sales declined year-on-year, but the earnings exceeded expectations.

In pre-market trading, up over 3%, a US video game retailer.$GameStop (GME.US)$The latest third quarter earnings report was released, showing a year-on-year decline in sales and falling short of Wall Street expectations. However, the company's adjusted EPS exceeded market expectations. GameStop's adjusted EPS for the third quarter was $0.06, higher than the FactSet analyst forecast of a loss of $0.03. Net sales were $0.8603 billion, below analysts' expectations of $0.888 billion. This is a 20% decline compared to last year's $1.08 billion.

In pre-market trading, up over 1%, General Motors exits the autonomous taxi market! Its subsidiary Cruise will merge with the technology team.

Pre-market up over 1%.$General Motors (GM.US)$On Tuesday, General Motors announced it will no longer fund the development of autonomous taxis for its self-driving unit Cruise, opting to merge the department into its broader technology team. The reasons for this decision include the increasingly competitive market for autonomous taxis, capital allocation priorities, and the significant time and resources required to develop this business.

Sony rose nearly 2% in Pre-Market Trading, as Japanese stocks hit a new historical high today.

Sony's stock price in Japan has reached a historical high for the first time in 24 years, driving momentum.$Sony (SONY.US)$US stocks rose nearly 2% in Pre-Market Trading. Recently, there have been reports that the company is providing VR controllers for Apple's headset. Additionally, it is reported that Sony has raised its revenue forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, expecting an increase in gaming revenue.

The stock continued to fall over 3% in Pre-Market Trading, as Super Micro Computer may be delisted from the NASDAQ 100 Index, closing down over 8% on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, December 10, Super Micro Computer closed down over 8%. Analysts believe this may be due to market concerns that Super Micro Computer will be removed from the NASDAQ 100 Index. The NASDAQ 100 Index consists of the 100 largest companies listed on the NASDAQ Exchange and is set to be restructured at the end of the year, with an announcement expected on December 13. As of press time,$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$Pre-market trading continues to decline over 3%.

Macy's has dropped over 10% in pre-market trading, with adjusted EPS for this fiscal year falling short of expectations.

$Macy's (M.US)$Falling over 10% in pre-market trading, the company expects adjusted EPS for this fiscal year to be between $2.25 and $2.50, which is below market expectations. Additionally, Macy's found significant deficiencies in internal control.

Walgreens has dropped over 3% in pre-market trading, with reports saying it is negotiating a sale with private equity; the stock surged 17.7% on Tuesday.

USA pharmacy chain group.$Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA.US)$Pre-Market Trading fell over 3%. The stock surged 17.7% on Tuesday. According to The Wall Street Journal, Walgreens is negotiating a sale with private equity firm Sycamore Partners. The buying and selling parties expect to reach a transaction agreement early next year, at which point Walgreens will be privatized and (Delisted). The group has about 8,700 stores in the USA, and it is reported that a quarter of them have yet to record profits.

$Candel Therapeutics (CADL.US)$The price of the treatment company surged over 140% in Pre-Market Trading because its prostate cancer drug achieved its primary goal in late-stage research.

In Pre-Market Trading, there was a surge of over 90% as semiconductor company SEALSQ teamed up with IC'ALPS to accelerate the development of secure ASICs.

In Pre-Market Trading, there was a surge of over 90% for the semiconductor company.$SEALSQ Corp (LAES.US)$Today announced its partnership with IC'ALPS to enhance the development of its specific application integrated circuits (ASICs) to meet the growing demand in the field.

Google's quantum chip is a hit! One call Options contract made a windfall of 63 times the investment.

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Overnight surge of more than 5%, with a further increase of over 1% in Pre-Market Trading, nearing historical highs. The bullish ratio is close to 80%, with the highest volume being for the Call Options expiring this Friday with a strike price of $185, which saw a trading volume exceeding 0.1 million contracts, though most have already been closed; the highest open interest is for the Call Options expiring on January 17 next year with a strike price of $200, with open contracts exceeding 0.1 million.

Moreover, the profit effect of Alphabet-A Call options is overwhelming, with the premium for the Call option expiring on December 13 and a strike price of $190 skyrocketing 63 times.

On Monday local time, Alphabet-A announced that its newly developed quantum chip "WILLOW" has achieved significant technological breakthroughs. Alphabet-A stated that Willow can reduce errors by multiples and has cracked key challenges in quantum error correction that have been studied for nearly 30 years; additionally, Willow can complete a standard benchmark calculation in less than 5 minutes, whereas even today's fastest supercomputers would take "10 to the power of 25" years to complete this calculation, far exceeding the age of the universe.

Global macro.

Is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week a certainty? The market is holding its breath for tonight's CPI.

The market expects that the USA's November CPI data will show stagnation in progress toward lowering the inflation rate, but it has not yet reached the point where the Federal Reserve will not cut rates next week. The market anticipates that the USA's CPI for November will rise 2.7% year-on-year, a higher increase than the previous month's 2.6%. CPI is a broad indicator of the costs of goods and services in the USA's economy. The market anticipates that the core CPI for November, excluding food and energy, will rise 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both remaining stable compared to October.

90% of economists predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut next week.

90% of economists predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its policy meeting on December 18, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. Meanwhile, most economists expect that the Federal Reserve may pause further rate cuts in late January, mainly due to concerns about rising inflation risks. The policies proposed by Trump—from import tariffs to tax cuts—are expected to generate inflationary pressure.

Major Wall Street firms collectively warn: investors' "frenzy" is waning, and the momentum of the U.S. stock market may slow down.

Several major Wall Street banks bet that as investors become cautious about technology companies' ability to profit from their massive investments in AI, the bullish trend of the US stock market will cool down next year. Ten major banks, including Morgan Stanley, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs, expect that from now until the end of next year, the S&P 500 Index, a key barometer of the US stock market, will rise by an average of about 8%. This will be lower than the index's historical average annual return of about 11%.

The Bank of Japan believes that the cost of waiting for the next interest rate hike is not high, and the yen's rate fluctuates sharply in the short term.

The Bank of Japan believes that the cost of waiting for the next interest rate hike is not significant. If an interest rate hike is proposed, some policymakers do not oppose raising rates in December. Officials reportedly think that the next rate hike is just a matter of time, not if there will be a rate hike. The yen then experienced significant fluctuations, with the USD/JPY briefly dropping to a low of 150.99 before rebounding about 100 points, now returning to around the 152 level. From the current situation, traders expect a 26% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points next week.

Top 20 Pre-Market Trading Volumes in the USA

Reminder of Macroeconomic Events in the USA

(All times are in Beijing time)

23:30 USA EIA Crude Oil Product Inventory for the week ending December 6 (ten thousand barrels)

23:30 USA EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending December 6 (ten thousand barrels)

Next early morning

02:00 USA 10-Year Treasury Bond Auction on December 11 - Total Amount (hundred million USD)

Editor/ping

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