销售费用下降，业绩释放，盈利能力增强。2024 年前三季度，公司的销售费用同比减少6.33%，同期费用已经连续两年减少；销售费用率同比下降2.52 个百分点至19.93%。销售费用减少对增厚盈利有着显著的效果：2024 年前三季度，公司实现扣非归母净利润11.09亿元，同比增长11.15%，净利润率同比提升1.21 个百分点。整体看，本期公司的盈利增长远好于收入，主要得益于各项销售投入的减少。我们认为，经济逆风阶段白酒类公司将会持续减少销售和市场投入，以换取相对优异的股东回报。Key investment points:
Overall revenue growth is slowing, and the low rise in premium alcohol is the main reason. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.38%. The increase was 21.1 percentage points narrower than the third quarter of the previous year and 16.24 percentage points narrower than the second quarter of that year. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.56%, an increase of 10.4 percentage points over -4.84% in the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2024, premium liquor achieved revenue of 3.457 billion yuan, an increase of 1.39% year on year; mid-range liquor achieved revenue of 0.196 billion yuan, an increase of 41.05% year on year. The low increase in revenue from premium liquor is the main source of a sharp narrowing in revenue growth.
In both new channels and traditional channels, sales growth was higher than revenue growth, indicating a decline in the product structure. The sales volume of the new channel was 947 kiloliters, up 11.67% year on year. During the same period, the channel's revenue increased 1.12%; the sales volume of the wholesale agent channel was 7651.17 kiloliters, up 3.91% year on year, and the channel's revenue increased 3.12% during the same period. In both new channels and traditional channels, sales growth was higher than revenue growth, indicating a decline in the product structure. In contrast, the company's product gross margin fell 0.24 percentage points to 82.94% in the first three quarters, down 2.17 percentage points from 85.11% in the same period in 2021, and the overall price system has declined since 2021.
Sales expenses have declined, performance has been released, and profitability has increased. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's sales expenses decreased by 6.33% year on year. Expenses have been reduced for two consecutive years during the same period; the sales expenses ratio fell 2.52 percentage points year on year to 19.93%. The reduction in sales expenses had a significant effect on increasing profits: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved net profit deducted from mother of 1.109 billion yuan, an increase of 11.15% year on year, and the net profit margin increased 1.21 percentage points year on year. Overall, the company's profit growth in the current period was far better than revenue, mainly due to the reduction in various sales investments. We believe that during the economic headwind phase, liquor companies will continue to reduce sales and market investment in exchange for relatively excellent shareholder returns.
Investment advice: We forecast the company's earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.81, 2.97, and 3.14 yuan, respectively. Referring to the closing price of $58.82 on December 10, the corresponding price-earnings ratios were 20.97, 19.8, and 18.71 times, respectively, and downgraded the company's rating to “prudent increase in holdings.”
Risk warning: High-end liquor consumption is highly correlated with economic fundamentals, and the economic growth rate continues
