Spot Gold$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ Today, it once broke the $2700 mark, currently reporting at $2693.97.

Recently, Morgan Stanley released the 2025 Commodity Outlook report, stating that Gold remains the "best choice" for hedging uncertainties, expecting the price to rise to $3000 per ounce next year, with an average of $2950 per ounce by the fourth quarter.

The global central banks' increase in Gold holdings is the main driving force behind the rise in Gold prices, with the People's Bank of China increasing its Gold holdings again after six months.

The increase in holdings from central banks around the world is one of the main driving forces behind the rise in international Gold prices, with the People's Bank of China being one of the most significant forces. On December 7th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that the central bank had increased its Gold holdings for the first time in six months. China's Gold reserves at the end of November amounted to 72.96 million ounces, compared to 72.8 million ounces at the end of October, after the central bank had paused for six consecutive months. From 2023 to April this year, the central bank increased its Gold reserves for 18 consecutive months.

In response, the World Gold Council stated that the People's Bank of China led the demand for Gold in the first quarter of this year and became the largest Gold buyer in 2023. The resumption of purchases indicates that even with Gold prices at historical highs, the People's Bank of China remains keen on diversifying reserves and preventing currency depreciation.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that the current proportion of Gold reserves in our international reserves is relatively low, and from the perspective of optimizing the structure of international reserves, the central bank's increase in Gold holdings is the general direction. At the same time, Gold is a widely accepted ultimate payment method globally, and increasing Gold holdings can enhance the credit of sovereign currency, creating favorable conditions for the prudent promotion of the internationalization of the Renminbi.

Tonight, the USA CPI is a key factor for the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate cuts.

The USA Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the USA November CPI data on Wednesday, December 11.

Goldman Sachs recently stated in a Research Report that the USA November core CPI is expected to rise by 0.28% month-on-month, lower than the market consensus expectation of 0.3%, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.27%, also below the market consensus expectation of 3.3%. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs predicts that inflation will further slow down over the next year, with monthly CPI inflation rates between 0.20% and 0.25% in the coming months, but January may be slightly higher, reflecting a slight push from price increases at the beginning of the new year.

Bank of America released a report this week stating that, at least for now, there is limited upside risk to inflation. However, if the CPI data unexpectedly rises, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to halt interest rate cuts sooner.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, on the eve of the CPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is close to 90%. Most Institutions also believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at the December monetary policy meeting, which is Bullish for Gold.

Morgan Stanley strategist Matthew Hornbach stated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December and January respectively.

Citigroup, previously the only Wall Street institution predicting a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve this month, has now revised its forecast to a 25 basis point cut. This revision was made after last Friday's employment data was released. Citigroup analysts stated in a report that the data was not weak enough to justify a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

Wall Street is generally Bullish on the future trends of Gold prices.

Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategy team recently released the 2025 Commodity Outlook report, expressing continued Bullish sentiment on Gold. The report believes that:

The post-U.S. election pullback is not a "significant change," but rather a "misstep" driven by position changes. Considering the frenzy for physical Gold has faded and the bubble in Gold Futures positions is also reduced, this will lay a foundation for next year's rise in Gold prices.

Gold remains the "undeniable choice" for hedging uncertainty, with expectations that the Gold price will rise to 3000 USD/ounce next year, reaching an average of 2950 USD/ounce by the fourth quarter.

Global major Precious Metals product and service provider Heraeus noted in its "2025 Precious Metals Forecast Report" released on Tuesday that further rate cuts by major central banks and a weaker USD outlook will boost Gold demand, potentially allowing Gold prices to continue their record rise in 2025. Heraeus predicts that due to sustained purchases by major central banks (despite lower purchase volumes than in 2024) and geopolitical risks from Ukraine and the Middle East, Gold prices could reach as high as 2950 USD in 2025.

Goldman Sachs stated, "We believe central bank demand will not slow down, and as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, investors are also reallocating their investments." Goldman Sachs predicts that prices might reach 3000 USD/ounce by the end of next year. Goldman Sachs is not concerned that a stronger USD will pressure Gold: "The Fed's reduction in rate cuts is a key downside risk to our 3000 USD Gold price prediction for the end of 2025 (rather than the strong USD)."

In addition, Ray Dalio, co-founder of Bridgewater, one of the world's largest hedge funds, stated on Tuesday that in the context of worsening debt issues in most major economies, he tends to invest in "hard currencies" such as Gold and Bitcoin while avoiding debt-related assets. Dalio pointed out that many major countries' debt levels have reached "unprecedented levels," which is unsustainable. He warned that these countries will inevitably face a debt crisis in the future, leading to a significant decline in currency value.

Compared to Golden Industrial Concept stocks, physical Gold ETFs may better track Gold prices.

As of December 10th this year, the spot Gold price has increased by 30.56%, but the top 10 ranked Gold stocks by market cap in the U.S. have fluctuated between -2% and 70% since the beginning of the year, primarily due to individual stocks being affected by rising Gold mining costs and various operational interferences, causing their performance not to necessarily synchronize with Gold prices. Therefore, ETFs that track spot Gold prices have become the preferred means for investors to rapidly position themselves in the Gold market.

Tracking the price of spot Gold $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ is the largest Gold ETF, with an asset scale of 75.292 billion USD as of the US stock market close on December 10, and a rise of 30.04% this year, which is basically consistent with the 30.56% rise of spot Gold. In addition, investors can also pay attention to $Gold Trust Ishares (IAU.US)$ 、 $Spdr Gold Minishares Trust (GLDM.US)$ other spot Gold ETFs.

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