#黄金Technical analysis#24K99讯 traded early in the European market on Wednesday (12/11). Spot gold traded around 2,693 US dollars/ounce; in the Asian market, the price of gold once broke through the 2,700 US dollars/ounce mark. FXStreet senior analyst Dhwani Mehta recently wrote an article on Wednesday analyzing technical trends in gold prices.
On Tuesday, spot gold closed up $33.75, or 1.27%, as geopolitical tension intensified and supported by strong expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next week.
Mehta wrote that in early Wednesday trading, the price of gold hit a two-week high of around $2,700. Purchases by the Central Bank of China and tension in the Middle East have supported the rise in gold prices. Whether the gold price can rise further depends on US CPI data.
Mehta notes that fromTechnical sideLook, the price of gold has broken through the moving average.Relative strength index(RSI) Bullish.
At 21:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November will be released. The report may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate path at the December 17-18 meeting.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect US CPI to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in November. Last month, the figure was up 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-over-year.
The US core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month in November, the same as in October. The year-on-year increase in US core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% in November.
Analysts pointed out that CPI data in line with expectations is unlikely to hinder interest rate cuts, but if the data shows that inflation progress has stalled, the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates for the third time in a row may decrease.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group)'s “Federal Reserve Watch Tool” shows that as the US CPI is about to be released, the market expects an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
Analysis of the latest gold trading
Mehta pointed out that the daily chart shows that the price of gold broke through the consolidation phase after regaining the key 50-day moving average (SMA) of $2,670 per ounce on Tuesday.
On the 14th, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved upward above the midline, indicating that gold prices are still expected to rise further.
Mehta said that weaker than expected US CPI inflation data may strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the next few months, thereby pushing the price of gold to a high of 2,721 US dollars/ounce on November 25.
The next bullish target for gold prices is 2,750 US dollars/oz. This is a confluence of psychological barriers and the November 5 high. If the price of gold continues to rise above this level, new buying opportunities may arise, raising its test record to a high of $2,790 per ounce.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
On the other hand, Mehta added that if the US inflation data unexpectedly rises, the price of gold may face new headwinds, and sellers may test the 50-day moving average resistance changeSupport level$2670/oz.
The next important support for the gold price is found in the 21-day moving average of 2,638 US dollars/ounce. Once it falls below this level, the price of gold will challenge last week's low of 2,613 US dollars/ounce.
At 16:19 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at US$2692.85 per ounce.
